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Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Texas Pacific Land. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Texas Pacific Land’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$866.3M
from $631.6M
FCF FY30
$246.7M
Margin 28.5%
Enterprise value
$3.37B
5.3× LTM revenue
Equity value
$3.74B
Net debt -$369.8M
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
6.5%
-10.0%baseline 6.5%40.0%
Gross margin
45.0%
5.0%baseline 45.0%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
2.3%
0.0%baseline 2.3%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Texas Pacific Land forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What is Texas Pacific Land Corporation's primary business model?+

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) is a major landowner in Texas, generating revenue by granting access to its 880,000 acres of surface rights and collecting royalties on extracted oil, gas, and water. The company operates an asset-light model, essentially functioning as a toll bridge for Permian Basin energy development without drilling or operating wells itself.

How does Texas Pacific Land Corporation generate its revenue?+

TPL generates revenue primarily through its Land and Resource Management segment, which accounts for approximately 55% of revenue, and its Water Services and Operations segment, making up about 45%. These revenues stem from royalties on oil, gas, and water, as well as fees for surface access and water disposal, all within the Permian Basin.

What is Texas Pacific Land Corporation's capital expenditure strategy?+

TPL's capital expenditure strategy is heavily growth-oriented, with 80% allocated to growth and 20% to maintenance. Recent significant investments include the construction of a 10,000 barrel-per-day produced water desalination facility in Orla, Texas, and strategic bolt-on acquisitions of adjacent royalty interests.

What are the key balance sheet characteristics of Texas Pacific Land Corporation?+

TPL's balance sheet shows total assets between $1.5 billion and $2.0 billion, with land carried at historical cost, which significantly understates its current market value. The company generally maintains positive net working capital due to substantial cash balances and funds all its growth entirely from operating cash flow.

Can I download an Excel financial model for Texas Pacific Land Corporation?+

Yes, an Excel financial model for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) is available for download. This model offers a comprehensive equity valuation and cash flow forecast, covering a forecast horizon from FY2026 through FY2030.

What gives Texas Pacific Land Corporation a competitive advantage in its market?+

Texas Pacific Land Corporation holds a unique, monopoly-like competitive position due to its extensive surface acreage in the Permian Basin. This allows the company to capture high margins from energy operators who require access for drilling, pipelines, and water disposal, leveraging its asset-light business model.

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