Bubble Financial Model
Marketplace Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
No-code visual web-app builder enabling non-technical users to build and launch full-stack software products without writing code.
professionals from Deloitte
Used by professionals from
About this model
Bubble is a no-code platform that lets non-technical users build and launch full-stack web applications visually. Alongside the core builder, its ecosystem includes plugins, templates, education, agencies, and a community that supports product-led adoption.
The platform sells tiered subscriptions from $25 to $8,000 per month and earns additional marketplace and education revenue. Its deck described ARR growing threefold year over year, negative net revenue churn, 8–12% organic monthly growth, and strong customer advocacy.
The model is subscription-first but does not treat every dollar as SaaS. It tracks free-to-paid conversion, plan mix, new cohorts, expansion, and retention for core ARR, then adds plugin and education revenue separately. Growth investment, platform gross margin, and net retention determine the operating leverage and cash profile.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Bubble
bubble.com
How to build a detailed financial model for Bubble
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Bubble model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
- Visual drag-and-drop builder capable of producing production-ready apps (not prototypes) comparable in capability to Twitter, Airbnb, or Upwork.
- Learning curve: hours to onboard, days to launch. Requires no engineering background.
- Three revenue-generating surfaces: core platform subscriptions, a plugin marketplace (ARR tracked separately), and templates/education.
- Free tier exists; plan restrictions introduced in early 2021 to drive free-to-paid conversion.
Market
- No explicit TAM/SAM/SOM figures or $ market-size estimates presented.
- Qualitative framing: no-code "multiplies the software engineering market by 100X, turning millions of non-tech users into software builders."
- Competitive landscape: fragmented - Retool, Betty Blocks, Mendix, Unqork, Honeycode, Zapier, AppSheet, Airtable, Webflow; Bubble claims unique position at intersection of "no-code" and "wide breadth of capabilities."
Revenue model
- Subscription (platform): $25/mo to $8,000/mo; tiered plans.
- Plugin marketplace: revenue-share or flat fee on third-party plugins sold through Bubble's marketplace (tracked as separate ARR line).
- Templates, plugins, and education: one-time or recurring; shown as annualised contribution in ARR chart.
- Primary go-to-market: product-led growth (organic/earned media = 45% of paid users) + paid acquisition (Google); early inside-sales motion showing ACV up 3X.
- Free plan → paid conversion funnel. Cohort conversion improves materially month-over-month after Feb 2021 plan restrictions.
Traction & metrics
- ARR: $XXm (redacted in deck); growing 3X year-over-year and accelerating as of Mar 2021.
- Paying customers: YY (redacted).
- Net burn since 2020: $XXm (redacted).
- Monthly net revenue churn: negative (i.e. net revenue retention >100%) since beginning of 2021.
- Organic MoM growth rate: 8–12% m/m at time of deck (Jan–Mar 2021).
- Projected uplift from growth levers: additional 3–6% m/m on top of base 8–12%.
- Paid NPS: >70 since April 2021.
- Community forum: 500+ posts/day; time to first reply <10 minutes.
- Ecosystem: 130+ agencies listed; 100+ bootcamp students/month.
- User demographics: 34% never built anything online; 33% business owners/execs; 27% Marketing/BD/Sales/Ops; only 15% technical (Software/Design/Product).
- 70% of apps built are customer-facing.
- Free-to-paid conversion: plan restrictions in Feb 2021 increased conversion by 70% in that month.
- Paid CAC (Google): down 42% from Nov 2020 to Mar 2021.
- Early inside sales ACV: up 3X.
- Earned media + referrals: 45% of paid users.
Unit economics
- CAC: Google paid CAC down 42% (Nov 2020–Mar 2021); absolute $ CAC not disclosed.
- High-end churn issue noted: some larger apps leaving due to scalability constraints, estimated to represent ~2% of monthly ARR growth if fixed.
- Improving activation/conversion by 50% modelled to add ~2% monthly ARR growth.
Competition / moat
- Competitors: Retool (low-code, narrow), Betty Blocks, Mendix, Unqork, Amazon Honeycode, Zapier, AppSheet, Airtable, Webflow.
- Moat: unique positioning as the only broad-capability, true no-code platform (vs. low-code or narrow-use-case tools).
- Network effects: thriving freelance/agency ecosystem (130+ agencies) and bootcamp/education pipeline creates switching cost and community lock-in.
- Brand: 45% of paid users from earned media/referral - indicates strong organic word-of-mouth.
- Strategy: win via startups first (B2C/PLG) → enterprises adopt tools with highest employee buy-in.
Team & funding ask / use of funds
- Co-founders / Co-CEOs: Josh Haas (Harvard BA, Bridgewater, tech cofounder) and Emmanuel Straschnov (Harvard MBA, Polytechnique, consulting). Partners since 2012.
- Team size: ~35 FTEs across Product & Engineering (1 VP Eng, 1 Head of Product, 11 engineers, 1 PM, 1 Senior Designer), Growth (6), Customer Success (11), Operations (3).
- Funding ask: seeking a lead investor; raise size not disclosed.
- Use of funds: four stated levers - (1) scalability/engineering investment to reduce high-end churn (+2% m/m ARR); (2) ease-of-learning/product investment to improve free-to-paid conversion (+2% m/m ARR); (3) brand/partnerships/education (bootcamp scale-up); (4) scale paid acquisition.
- Head of Growth search underway via search firm at time of deck.
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: SaaS ARR model with a marketplace/education revenue layer. Bubble has a clear subscription-first ARR structure (two tracked ARR lines: core platform + plugins) plus an annualised non-recurring marketplace/education line. Net negative revenue churn is the key value driver - model must capture cohort-based NRR, not just gross adds. A pure PLG SaaS ARR model with cohort retention is the right fit.
- Forecast horizon & granularity: Monthly for 24 months (Jan 2021–Dec 2022, mirroring the deck's own projection slide), then annual for Years 3–5. Monthly is required given the 8–12% m/m growth rate and the lever-driven inflections in 2021.
- Key drivers & assumptions:
| Driver | Value |
|---|---|
| ARR at model start (Jan 2021) | Redacted - use $Xm placeholder; per chart shape and 3X y/y growth, likely low-single-digit $m |
| Paying customers at start | Redacted (YY) |
| ARPU blended (core platform) | Derived: ARR ÷ customers; plan range $25–$8,000/mo → blended likely $100–$300/mo |
| Organic MoM ARR growth (base) | 8–12% m/m |
| Additional MoM growth from levers | +3–6% m/m (phased in H2 2021) |
| Net revenue retention (NRR) | >100% (negative net churn confirmed Jan 2021+) |
| Gross logo churn (high-end) | ~1–2%/mo; lever investment targets -2% ARR drag |
| Free-to-paid conversion uplift | +70% step-change in Feb 2021 from plan restrictions; target +50% further |
| Plugin/marketplace ARR % of total | ~10–15% of total ARR, growing in line with platform |
| Education/templates (annualised) | ~5–10% of total, growing with bootcamp scale-up |
| Paid CAC (blended, Google) | Declining 42% over 5 months; stabilise at -20% y/y thereafter |
| Sales & marketing % of ARR | ~20–30%; company is capital-efficient with mostly PLG |
| Gross margin | ~70–80%; typical for SaaS hosting + support-heavy model |
| Headcount growth | 2x over 24 months from ~35 FTE; engineering and CS heaviest hires |
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Base: 8–10% m/m organic growth; levers add 3% m/m from Q3 2021; NRR stays ~105%; CAC -20% y/y.
- Bull: Levers add 5–6% m/m; NRR reaches 110%+ (upsell takes hold); inside sales ACV 3X scales to meaningful ARR segment; bootcamp 10X partnership lands.
- Bear: High-end churn not fixed (scalability issues persist); conversion uplift stalls; organic growth reverts to 6–7% m/m; paid CAC flattens.
- Flex variables: MoM growth rate, churn rate, free-to-paid conversion rate, ARPU mix shift, headcount ramp.
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions - all inputs in one place, clearly tagged vs.
- ARR Build - monthly cohort waterfall: new ARR, expansion ARR, churned ARR, net new ARR, ending ARR (split: core platform / plugins / marketplace+education).
- Cohort Table - monthly signup cohorts × conversion rate curve (months 0–12 post-signup); drives new paying customers.
- P&L - Revenue, COGS (hosting, support), Gross Profit, S&M, R&D, G&A, EBITDA, Net Income. Monthly for 24 months.
- Headcount Plan - department-level FTE ramp with loaded cost.
- Cash / Runway - opening cash + raise proceeds, monthly burn, runway months.
- KPI Dashboard - ARR (total + by line), paying customers, MoM growth %, NRR, CAC, payback period, gross margin %, runway.
- Scenario toggle - drop-down to switch Base / Bull / Bear.
Frequently asked
Is the Bubble financial model free?+
Yes. The Bubble model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Bubble's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
Created by ex-finance professionals
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