Ellis Financial Model
Fintech Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
Bundled financial + immigration services platform for international students entering the US, acquired via overseas education agencies before relocation.
professionals from Deloitte
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About this model
Ellis bundles financial and immigration services for international students moving to the US. It is acquired before arrival through overseas education agencies, then supports students with banking, mobile connectivity, tax services, and access to credit.
The business is built around a predictable annual student intake and a multi-year customer relationship. Agency distribution gives Ellis an efficient route to a defined audience at a moment when new students need several financial and administrative products.
The model should follow each student cohort through account activation, debit-card spend, mobile-plan adoption, tax-service usage, and loan take-up. Interchange, subscription or service fees, and lending income should be forecast separately, with cohort retention and credit losses determining lifetime value.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Ellis
meetellis.com
How to build a detailed financial model for Ellis
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Ellis model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
Core bundle - delivered up to 4 months before the student arrives in the US:
- Ellis Bank: FDIC-insured US checking account opened remotely via passport + Form I-20/DS-2019; funded by international SWIFT wire or domestic ACH; Apple Pay / Google Pay / virtual + physical debit card
- Ellis Mobile (Q2 2022, in-build): MVNO on T-Mobile backbone; US phone number shipped internationally
- Ellis Rent (Q3 2022 roadmap): Lease co-signer product
- Ellis Forms (TBD): Automated immigration paperwork - SSA card, non-resident tax returns, OPT work authorization, visa renewal via RPA
- Ellis Borrow (Q4 2022 roadmap): Student personal loans underwritten using immigration data + bank transaction history; issued against customer deposits via banking partner
Value prop: single immigration profile acts as the data layer across all products, enabling bundled pricing, early acquisition, near-zero marginal cost on government paperwork automation, and proprietary underwriting.
Revenue model
No explicit pricing table in deck. Revenue streams described or implied:
| Stream | Notes |
|---|---|
| Interchange (debit card) | Standard ~1–1.5% interchange on debit spend; mentioned 1% cashback as competitive lever |
| Mobile plan subscription | Monthly MVNO fee; priced below point-solution competitors via bundle subsidy |
| Tax filing fee / instant refund liquidity fee | Non-resident tax return filed free OR optional fee for instant deposit of refund to Ellis account |
| Loan interest income | Personal student loans at below-market rates (no rate cited); cash-flow underwritten |
| Lease co-signer fee | Implied fee-for-service; no amount stated |
Distribution channel: international education agencies and consultants paid a referral commission per student enrolled; Ellis ships SIM + debit cards to agency offices for pre-departure onboarding.
Traction & metrics
- Neo-bank product is live and operational
- MSA signed with T-Mobile to build MVNO
- MOUs signed with X educational agencies netting ~Y students/year (X and Y are redacted placeholders in the deck)
- No revenue, customer count, growth rate, retention, or GMV figures disclosed
Unit economics
- CAC: Qualitative only - agency referral channel expected to have lower and more predictable CAC than digital; B2C digital CACs rose 60% from 2014–2019 cited as the problem with point-solution competitors. No dollar figure given.
- LTV: Qualitative - bundled multi-product + low-churn products cited as LTV advantage; high enough LTV to outspend competitors on CAC. No dollar figure given.
- Referral commission paid per student to agencies: described as "$Y × X students" - both redacted
- Loan underwriting: loans issued against customer deposits (no need for external debt capital)
- No gross margin, ARPU, payback period, or contribution margin figures in deck
Competition / moat
Competitors named or implied:
- Traditional banks (Chase, BofA): cannot onboard international students online; require branch visit
- Point-solution neobanks (unnamed): compete on digital CAC; no bundle advantage
- Non-resident tax return filers (unnamed, linked in deck)
- Stilt: immigrant loan product (listed as a partner/enabler, not purely a competitor)
Moat claims:
- 4-month head start on acquisition before any bank can onboard the student
- Bundle pricing power - can underprice individual SKUs by cross-subsidising across products
- Proprietary immigration data profile enables better loan underwriting and one-click tax filing
- Agency distribution bypasses expensive digital channels entirely
- COVID-era shift to digital/mail-in government processes creates the RPA automation wedge
Team & funding ask / use of funds
- CEO: Sampei Omichi
- No other team members, advisors, or investors named in available slides
- Funding ask: Seed round - amount not stated
- Use of proceeds:
- Build MVNO (Ellis Mobile) - manufacture SIM cards + debit cards at scale for Summer 2022 intake
- Build agent/consultant distribution network targeting 25,000 students/year sent to US; validate channel CAC
- Pay referral fees to distribution partners; grow team
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: Multi-product consumer fintech / neobank cohort model with attached MVNO and lending book. The business is a student-cohort acquisition engine - each annual university intake is a new cohort of known size that ages through the product bundle over a 4–6 year US residency. The right archetype is a cohort-based multi-revenue-stream fintech model (not a pure SaaS ARR model - there is no recurring subscription for most products; revenue is interchange + fee + loan interest). Lending adds a simple balance sheet line (loan book funded by deposits).
- Forecast horizon & granularity: 5 years (2022–2026), monthly for Year 1 (to capture the seasonal university intake spike in Aug–Sep), quarterly thereafter. University enrollment is highly seasonal - this must be modelled with intake cohorts by academic year, not smoothed annual curves.
- Key drivers & assumptions:
| Driver | Value / Rationale |
|---|---|
| Annual new international student intakes to US | ~180,000–200,000/yr |
| Ellis addressable intake (agency-reachable, primarily China/India/SEA) | 25,000 students/yr (Year 1 target) |
| Ramp: agency MOU → paying student conversion rate | 60% |
| Bank account activation rate (of enrolled) | 80% |
| MVNO attach rate (of bank users) | 50% in Year 1, 70% by Year 3 |
| Tax filing attach rate | 40% |
| Loan attach rate | 10% Year 1, 20% by Year 3 |
| Monthly debit card spend per student (AOV basis) | $500/month |
| Interchange rate (debit) | 1.0% |
| MVNO monthly fee | $25/month |
| Tax filing fee (instant refund option) | $30/return |
| Avg loan size | $5,000 |
| Loan interest rate | 12% APR |
| Loan loss rate | 3% |
| Agency referral commission per student | $30–50 |
| SIM card + debit card COGS per student | $15 |
| Student average US tenure | 4 years for UG, 2 years for grad |
| Annual churn (bank product, post-activation) | 10% |
| Headcount at seed close | 4–6 FTE |
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Base: 25,000 students/yr by end of Year 1 via agency channel; 60% MOU→student conversion; MVNO + bank only in Year 1; tax + loans from Year 2
- Bull: Agency channel scales to 60,000 students/yr by Year 2; MVNO attach rate 75%; loan product gains traction fast; lower-than-assumed churn
- Bear: Agency channel delayed or MOU conversion low (30%); MVNO build delayed past Q2 2022; regulatory friction on loan product; higher card COGS from supply chain issues
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions - all drivers in one place, colour-coded inputs
- Cohort model - annual intake cohorts tracked month by month; each cohort contributes bank / MVNO / tax / loan revenue over its lifetime
- Income Statement (P&L) - monthly Year 1, quarterly Years 2–5; revenue by stream, COGS (interchange/MVNO cost, card manufacturing), gross profit, opex (headcount, agency commissions, marketing, tech/infra), EBITDA
- Loan Book - simple balance sheet: loan originations, repayments, interest income, provision for losses; funded by deposit float
- Cash Flow - operating CF; capital requirements for SIM/card manufacturing ahead of each intake season; runway chart
- KPI Dashboard - active users by product, ARPU, blended LTV (cohort NPV), blended CAC, LTV/CAC ratio, monthly burn, runway months
- Scenario toggle - drop-down to switch Base / Bull / Bear across all sheets
Frequently asked
Is the Ellis financial model free?+
Yes. The Ellis model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Ellis's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
Created by ex-finance professionals
Hey, I’m Alex and I created Finamodel.
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