GH

Guest House Financial Model

Three integrated modules:

1. Stage - Order staging online; interior designers handle project planning, mood boards, and in-person install. Furniture sourced from premium brand partners (Crate & Barrel, Joybird, APT2B). Turnaround as fast as one week. Free listing photography + optional 3D tour/video.
2. Shop (Retail) - Staged properties become shoppable rooms; home buyers scan a QR code to purchase furnishings in situ. Deeper discounts applied as items cycle through more stagings ("up to 60% off").
3. Make - Network of 500+ "Guest House Makers" (local artisans/makers) whose products are featured in stagings.

Payment: Affirm BNPL integration at checkout; full staging price visible in UI as $5,400 with $233/month Affirm option.

• 6.5 million homes sold in the US annually
• 31% of those homes are staged
• Home staging market = $5 billion annually
• No SAM, SOM, or growth rate stated in deck

Two streams:

Stream 1 - Staging fees (B2B, from Realtors/sellers)

• Starting price: $1,050/month per staged home
• Full example checkout price visible as $5,400 (likely multi-month engagement)
• Geographic footprint: hundreds of zip codes across 4 markets

Stream 2 - Marketplace commission (B2C, from furniture resale)

• Commission on sale of goods when staged furniture is purchased by home buyers or through the resale platform
• Available nationally
• Discount mechanics: prices decline as items are restaged more times ("deeper discounts applied" on each cycle)
• Affirm BNPL also available on marketplace purchases ($168/month at 0% APR example)

• 270% revenue increase YTD
• 12 full-time employees
• 500+ Guest House Makers in network
• 73 average customer NPS score
• 4 markets (Denver, Boulder, Colorado Springs, San Diego)
• 30+ Guest House Designers on roster

No absolute revenue figure, no customer count, no GMV, no order volume stated.

Implied data points only:

• Staging fee floor: $1,050/month
• Example order value: $5,400
• Furniture resale example: $1,899 (marked down from $2,499)

• Positioning: traditional staging lacks technology, consistency, and consumer experience
• Differentiation vs. traditional stagers: tech platform, premium brand partners, in-house designers, free photography, BNPL
• No named competitors; no competitive matrix in deck
• Moat implied by: brand partnerships (Crate & Barrel, Joybird, APT2B), designer network (30+), maker network (500+), and proprietary platform + QR-code shoppable room integration

Team (slide 19):

• Alex Ryden - Founder & CEO
• Jon Sakas - CTO
• Bret Sundberg - Director of Design
• Elliot Hasse - Head of Creative
• Reed Van Dyck - Operations Manager
• Addie Sweeney - Operations Coordinator
• Aly Weaver - Growth Manager
• Stang Gappa - Head of Growth

Archetype + why: Dual-stream marketplace P&L - staging is a recurring subscription-like services revenue line (B2B, geography-constrained) and marketplace resale is a commission-on-GMV line (B2C, national). Neither fits a pure SaaS ARR model (staging has physical ops costs) nor a pure DTC model. Best built as a two-segment operating model with a shared cost base (designers, logistics, tech).

Forecast horizon & granularity:

• 3 years (2022–2024), monthly in Year 1, quarterly in Years 2–3
• Year 1 granularity needed to model market expansion cadence

Key drivers & assumptions:

*Staging revenue:*

• Active staged homes per market at any time
• Average staging duration (months per engagement)
• Monthly staging fee per home: $1,050 floor, blended ASP likely $1,500–$2,500
• Market expansion pace:
• Designer capacity per market

*Marketplace / resale revenue:*

• Furniture inventory volume (units cycling through staging)
• Sell-through rate on retired staging inventory
• Average resale price per item
• Take rate / commission % on resale

*Costs:*

• COGS (furniture procurement/depreciation, designer labor, logistics, photography)
• Headcount growth
• Marketing / CAC
• Tech/platform opex

Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):

• Base: 1 new market/year, staging utilization at 70%, marketplace sell-through 55%, blended ASP ~$1,800/mo
• Bull: 2 new markets/year, BNPL drives higher conversion, marketplace GMV accelerates with national brand; NPS 73 drives strong word-of-mouth
• Bear: Market expansion delayed (ops bottleneck), sell-through slow on resale inventory, furniture procurement costs spike

Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions dashboard (all drivers in one place)
2. Staging revenue model (markets × homes × ASP × duration)
3. Marketplace GMV & commission model (inventory volume × sell-through × price × take rate)
4. Consolidated P&L (revenue, COGS, gross profit, opex, EBITDA)
5. Headcount plan (FTE by role, tied to market expansion)
6. Cash flow & runway (given likely pre-profitability stage)
7. KPI summary (NPS, active homes, designers, markets - for board reporting)