Mercado Bitcoin Financial Model
Crypto/Web3 Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
2TM is the parent holding company of Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil's largest crypto-asset exchange, operating a vertically integrated "3-in-1" platform covering distribution, trading, and custody of digital and tokenized assets.
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About this model
2TM is the parent of Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil’s largest crypto-asset exchange, with a platform spanning distribution, trading, custody, tokenisation, OTC, and funds. Group companies include a digital wallet, Bitrust custody, tokenisation infrastructure, a regulated distributor, education, and an institutional desk.
As of May 2021, Mercado Bitcoin had about 2.8 million registered clients, 306,000 monthly active users, one million custody clients, and R$5.0 billion monthly trading volume. Early-2021 volume reached R$24.7 billion, while regulatory relationships and an integrated stack were presented as defences against Brazilian competitors.
Model registered users through to active traders, volume by spot, OTC, and tokenised assets, and a blended fee rate. Add custody AUC fees, issuance, distribution, and fund-management revenue separately. Technology, liquidity, compliance, people, and M&A costs belong below revenue. Crypto prices, active-user conversion, volume per trader, take-rate pressure, and custody growth should drive scenarios.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Mercado Bitcoin
mercadobitcoin.com.br
How to build a detailed financial model for Mercado Bitcoin
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Mercado Bitcoin model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
- Mercado Bitcoin: largest crypto exchange in LatAm with +44 coins listed; founded 2013.
- 2TM group subsidiaries include: Meubank (multi-asset digital wallet/neobank), MBDA Digital Assets (tokenized assets), Bitrust (digital custody), MezaPro, Clearbook, Blockchain Academy (education), ParMais (traditional assets / regulated DTVM distributor), FIDD, OTC desk (institutional).
- Meubank positioned as "wallet of wallets" - store, convert, and use cash, crypto, miles/rewards, and other digital assets in a single account. Token-to-token conversion is a core feature.
- Custody subsidiary (Bitrust) backed by Kryptus (HSM/cryptography), with KPMG US consulting on SOC-1/SOC-2/CCSS Level-3 certification.
- Tokenization pipeline spans traditional assets (real estate, receivables, private debt, NPL, legal claims) and new-economy assets (carbon credits, fan tokens, NFTs, miles/cashback).
Market
- No explicit TAM/SAM/SOM figures in the deck.
- Macro context: BCB (Brazilian Central Bank) committed to digital Real in 2022; CVM allows regulated funds to be 100% invested in crypto; first Bitcoin ETF approved in Brazil Mar/21.
- Competitive set in Brazil: Mercado Bitcoin, Bitcointrade, Foxbit, Binance Brazil.
- No market-size dollar figures provided.
Revenue model
- Not explicitly itemised in deck. Implied revenue lines based on product descriptions:
- Spot trading fees (exchange spread/maker-taker) on Mercado Bitcoin platform
- OTC desk spread/fees for institutional clients
- Custody fees (Bitrust)
- Tokenization/issuance fees (MBDA Digital Assets)
- Asset management fees (institutional crypto funds)
- Distribution fees (ParMais - regulated DTVM)
- No explicit take-rate, fee schedule, or revenue breakdown provided.
Traction & metrics
- Client base (registered users, preliminary):
- 2013: 23k | 2014: 59k | 2015: 114k | 2016: 237k | 2017: 871k | 2018: 1,162k | 2019: 1,810k | 2020: 2,125k | Current (May 2021): 2,795k (~2.8M)
- 700k+ new clients registered Jan–May 2021
- Clients with Custody: 1 million
- MAU (Monthly Active Users, May 2021): 306k
- Client Conversion (M0+M1): 41%
- Trading Volume (R$ millions):
- May 2020: R$645M | Dec 2020: R$1,255M | Jan 2021: R$3,647M | Feb 2021: R$4,028M | Mar 2021: R$6,075M | Apr 2021: R$5,949M | May 2021: R$5,014M
- 2020 full-year total: R$6,400M (~R$6.4B)
- Jan–May 2021 cumulative: R$24.7B (3.9x full-year 2020; 7.8x YoY; 11.0x Jan–May 2020)
- Social media (Mercado Bitcoin vs. peers, as of deck date):
- Instagram: MB 185k | Bitcointrade 34.8k | Foxbit 32.6k | Binance BR 58.5k
- YouTube: MB 128k | Bitcointrade 13.9k | Foxbit 24.2k | Binance BR –
- LinkedIn: MB 39k | Bitcointrade 3k | Foxbit 13k | Binance BR –
- Facebook: MB 214k | Bitcointrade 12k | Foxbit 50k | Binance BR –
- Twitter: MB 48.1k | Bitcointrade 4.9k | Foxbit 23.2k | Binance BR 18k
- No revenue (R$), EBITDA, or take-rate figures disclosed.
Competition / moat
- Named direct competitors: Bitcointrade, Foxbit, Binance Brazil.
- Moat claims: largest client base and social presence in Brazil; operational since 2013 (8-year head start); proprietary regulatory relationships (first Brazilian exchange with direct COAF contact; CVM/BCB engagement; CBDC technical group membership); integrated custody/tokenization/distribution platform difficult to replicate; institutional-grade compliance (KPMG, SOC certifications in progress).
- Positioning: aspires to be the "XP / B3 / BNY Mellon" of the digital asset ecosystem - full-stack disintermediation.
Team & funding ask / use of funds
- Acquisitions noted: ParMais (DTVM distributor) and an unnamed entity - both acquired/invested in May 2021.
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: Crypto Exchange / Digital Asset Platform GMV-and-Fee model. The primary economic engine is trading volume (GMV) multiplied by a blended take-rate. Secondary revenue lines (custody, tokenization, OTC, fund management) layer on top. This is analogous to a marketplace GMV model but with multiple discrete fee types. A 3-statement model underneath is needed to capture opex (tech, compliance, people) and working capital. Not an M&A or SPAC deck.
- Forecast horizon & granularity: Monthly for Year 1–2 (2021–2022), quarterly for Years 3–5 (2023–2025). Crypto volumes are highly volatile; monthly granularity is necessary to model volume cycles and user growth cohorts.
- Key drivers & assumptions:
| Driver | Value / Tag |
|---|---|
| Registered user base, May 2021 | 2,795k |
| MAU, May 2021 | 306k |
| MAU / registered user ratio | 10.9% |
| Client conversion rate (M0+M1) | 41% |
| Monthly trading volume, May 2021 | R$5,014M |
| 2021 YTD volume (Jan–May) | R$24.7B |
| 2020 full-year volume | R$6,400M |
| Blended spot take-rate (exchange fee) | ~0.25%–0.50% |
| OTC spread/fee per transaction | ~0.10%–0.20% of notional, institutional ticket sizes; no data in deck |
| Custody fee (AUM-based) | ~0.50%–1.0% p.a. on AUC; 1M clients with custody, avg balance unknown |
| New user growth rate, H2 2021 | decelerating from ~140k/month (Jan–May 2021 pace) to ~60–80k/month as bull-market surge normalises |
| Monthly volume per MAU | R$16.4k/MAU (derived: R$5,014M / 306k MAU); highly correlated to BTC price |
| BTC price sensitivity | volume scales roughly with BTC price; model a BTC price assumption per period |
| International expansion capex | begins 2022–2023 based on strategic roadmap slide; magnitude unknown |
| M&A pipeline | bolt-on acquisitions per stated strategy; no budget disclosed |
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Base: BTC price roughly flat from May 2021 levels; volume growth normalises to +50% YoY in 2022; take-rate holds; user growth 50–60k/month.
- Bull: Sustained crypto bull market; BTC up 2–3x; monthly volume exceeds R$8B by end of 2022; MAU conversion improves; tokenization and custody revenues ramp faster.
- Bear: Crypto bear market (BTC –50% from peak); monthly volumes fall to R$1–2B range; user acquisition slows sharply; revenue contracts; tests fixed-cost coverage.
- Key flex variables: BTC price index, monthly trading volume, take-rate compression (Binance competition), MAU conversion rate, custody AUC.
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions dashboard (BTC price, FX BRL/USD, take-rates, growth rates)
- User funnel (registered → MAU → active traders → custody clients)
- Volume model (monthly GMV by product: spot, OTC, tokenized assets)
- Revenue build (fee income by line: trading, OTC, custody, tokenization, asset mgmt)
- OpEx model (headcount, tech infra, compliance/regulatory, marketing, G&A)
- Income Statement (monthly → annual)
- Simplified Balance Sheet (cash, custody assets, regulatory capital)
- Cash Flow Statement
- KPI summary (MAU, volume, take-rate, revenue/MAU, EBITDA margin)
- Scenario toggle sheet
Frequently asked
Is the Mercado Bitcoin financial model free?+
Yes. The Mercado Bitcoin model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Mercado Bitcoin's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
Created by ex-finance professionals
Hey, I’m Alex and I created Finamodel.
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