Metafuels Financial Model
Climate/Energy Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
Developer of proprietary eSAF (electro-sustainable aviation fuel) production technology ("aerobrew") based on methanol-to-jet conversion via nanotechnology catalysts.
professionals from Deloitte
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About this model
Metafuels develops aerobrew, a catalyst-based methanol-to-jet process for electro-sustainable aviation fuel. It uses green methanol made from sustainable CO2, renewable power, and water to produce a slate led by e-SAF, with e-naphtha and e-diesel as smaller co-products.
The company plans to co-own production plants through project SPVs while licensing its technology, catalysts, equipment, and services to third-party operators. Demand is supported by SAF blending mandates; a June 2023 MoU with European Energy and a first Pioneer-plant FEL study mark early commercial progress.
The model needs two linked schedules: a plant P&L based on litres produced, selling price, feedstock, energy, operating cost, and ownership share, plus licensing revenue per outside plant. Stage capex, construction, and funding before the anticipated 2028 Pioneer start, then stress-test green-methanol cost, SAF pricing, ramp-up, and royalty terms.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Metafuels
metafuels.ch
How to build a detailed financial model for Metafuels
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Metafuels model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
- Technology: aerobrew - methanol-to-olefins-to-jet process using proprietary catalyst systems and nanotechnology.
- Feedstock: green methanol synthesised from sustainable CO₂ (biomass, biogenic waste, direct air capture) + renewable electricity + water. No food/feed supply chain dependency.
- Product slate: >85% e-SAF (50% drop-in quality), <15% e-naphtha and e-diesel.
- Key claims vs. competitors: ultra-high e-SAF yield (c.AA% vs c.CC% for state-of-the-art), higher energy efficiency (c.BB% vs c.DD%-EE%), lowest cost of production (c. x USD/litre vs c. 2x USD/litre for competing tech), scalability up to 2,000 ton/day.
- Lifecycle emissions: up to 90% reduction vs. conventional jet fuel; aerobrew sits near net-zero (0 gCO₂/MJ) on LCA bubble chart.
- MeOH "make or buy" strategy possible - does not require oil refiner to finish product.
Market
- SAF market size projections:
- 2030: 23 bn litre (IATA Base Case 2021) / 48 bn litre (IEA Data 2023)
- 2035: 91 bn litre (IATA) / 105 bn litre (IEA)
- 2050: 449 bn litre (IATA) / 303 bn litre (IEA)
- 70% of jet fuel market expected to be SAF by 2050.
- Regulatory tailwind: EU and other jurisdictions introducing SAF blending mandates, including sub-mandates specifically for eSAF.
Revenue model
Two pillars stated explicitly:
Pillar I - Production plants
- Project development → investment projects (pioneer → growth).
- metafuels participates via ownership stake in production SPVs.
- Revenue = SAF sales from owned/co-owned plants.
- Pricing basis: c. x USD/litre (exact figure redacted in deck as placeholder "x"). Competing tech stated at c. 2x USD/litre, implying aerobrew targets <50% of that cost.
Pillar II - Technology licensing
- Revenue streams: royalties, design packages, catalyst supply, equipment supply, data, services.
- Licensees = third-party plant developers/operators.
No unit prices, royalty rates, or licensing fee structures disclosed in deck.
Traction & metrics
- MoU signed 29 June 2023: Metafuels × European Energy to develop a methanol-to-jet SAF project using aerobrew technology.
- FEL-1 (Front-End Loading study) kicked off for first Pioneer plant.
- Three additional traction cards on slide 11 are not legible (images blacked out/faded in deck).
- No revenue, customer count, AOV, retention, or financial KPIs disclosed.
Unit economics
- Cost of production for aerobrew: "c. x USD/litre" (exact value redacted).
- Competing technology cost: "c. 2x USD/litre" - aerobrew claims ~50% cost advantage.
- e-SAF yield advantage: aerobrew c.AA% vs competitor c.CC% (placeholders; actual figures not disclosed).
- Energy efficiency: c.BB% vs c.DD%-EE% (placeholders).
- No CAC, LTV, gross margin, EBITDA, or payback period data in deck.
Competition / moat
- Competing technologies shown on bubble chart: HEFA (oleaginous crops), HEFA (UCO), sugar crops, biomass gasification, power-to-jet (others), conventional jet fuel.
- aerobrew positioned as lowest-cost + near-zero LCA emissions + largest scalability bubble.
- Moat: proprietary catalyst systems ("breakthrough catalyst systems"), IP development and protection underway since 2020, nanotechnology process, scalability claim up to 2,000 ton/day vs "limited scalability" for state-of-the-art.
- Technology development partner: Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Switzerland's largest national research centre.
Team & funding ask / use of funds
Leadership:
- Saurabh Kapoor - CEO; B.Eng. (Mechanical)
- Dr. Leigh A. Hackett - Chairman; CEng, FIChemE
- Ulrich Koss - CTO; Dipl. Ing. (Industrial)
Investors:
- Energy Impact Partners
- Contrarian Ventures
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: Project-finance / technology-commercialisation model with two income streams - (1) a plant-level P&L for owned SAF production capacity (volume × $/litre margin), and (2) a licensing revenue schedule (royalties + catalyst/equipment fees per licensed plant). This is standard for industrial deep-tech companies that combine asset ownership with IP licensing. A pure 3-statement operating model would also be appropriate as a wrapper once plant-level economics are clarified.
- Forecast horizon & granularity:
- 2024–2028: annual, project-by-project build-up (mini-pilot → pilot → Pioneer plant(s))
- 2028–2035: annual, scaling to growth plants; licensing revenue ramp
- Key inflection: Pioneer plant production start ~2028, growth plants from 2028+
- Key drivers & assumptions:
- Pioneer plant(s) capacity: ca. 3.5 million litres/year
- Growth plant capacity: up to 700 million litres/year per plant
- Max single-plant scale: 2,000 ton/day
- aerobrew SAF selling price: ~$1.50–2.00/litre for eSAF premium product; market SAF prices ranged $1.50–$5.00/litre as of 2023–2024; exact model input TBD pending actual "x USD/litre" cost figure
- Cost of production: "c. x USD/litre"; model as a sensitivity input
- Gross margin on SAF production: 20–40% depending on energy cost and feedstock; highly location-dependent
- Ownership stake in Pioneer plant(s): 50% co-investment given "ownership participation" language; exact % not in deck
- Licensing royalty rate: 2–5% of plant revenue or fixed $/litre; no rate disclosed
- Number of Pioneer plants (2023–2028): 1–2; FEL-1 kicked off for first
- Number of growth plants (from 2028): 3–10 over 5 years; no targets in deck
- eSAF blending mandate ramp (EU): drives demand; 2% by 2025, increasing to 70% by 2050 per regulatory trajectory
- Feedstock (green methanol) cost: ~$500–700/tonne; major CoP driver; not in deck
- Opex / G&A: early-stage burn ~CHF 2–5M/year pre-Pioneer; scale-up with headcount post-2026
- CapEx for Pioneer plant: $50–150M range typical for first-of-kind eSAF plant; not in deck
- Technology development partner (PSI) cost: R&D contract; not quantified
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Base: Pioneer plant online 2028 at 3.5M litre/year, 1 licensing deal by 2030, SAF price at midpoint
- Bull: Pioneer plant ahead of schedule (2027), 3+ licensing deals by 2030, SAF price premium sustained, EU mandate accelerates demand
- Bear: Pioneer delayed to 2030, no licensing revenue until 2032, SAF price compression from HEFA/bio routes, cost of green methanol stays elevated
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions & drivers (centralised input sheet)
- Plant-level P&L: revenue (volume × price), feedstock cost, opex, EBITDA per plant
- Licensing revenue schedule: number of licensed plants × royalty/fee structure
- Consolidated P&L (IS)
- CapEx schedule and project timeline
- Cash flow / runway (burn vs. funding milestones)
- Sensitivity table: CoP vs. SAF selling price vs. plant capacity utilisation
- Scenario toggle (Base / Bull / Bear)
Frequently asked
Is the Metafuels financial model free?+
Yes. The Metafuels model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Metafuels's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
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