One Lonely Outpost Financial Model

• Farming simulator with space/alien world setting - first in the genre with this theme.
• Dual gameplay paths: Organic farming (animals, cross-breeding, premium crop pricing) vs. Synthetic/GMO (gene splicing, robo-animals, mutations) - each with unique mechanics, narrative, and NPC reactions.
• Colony builder: colonists arrive as food production grows.
• Optional combat zone (alien ruins, robots) and asteroid-mining mini-game.
• Optional terraforming feature (contingent on optimal funding).
• Fully fledged NPCs with relationship systems, marriage, and children.
• Distinctive tactile pixel art, Gene Splicing and In-depth plant tending as differentiating mechanics.
• Engine: Unity 3D; targets PC/Mac/Linux, Nintendo Switch; Xbox/PS and mobile with additional funding.
• Alpha build exists.

• Primary: Premium one-time purchase on digital storefronts (PC/Mac/Linux storefront TBD, Nintendo Switch eShop).
• Secondary/optional: Mobile port, multiplayer features - contingent on funding.
• No pricing, royalty split, or revenue-share figures disclosed in the deck.
• No DLC, live-service, or subscription model mentioned.

• Community: 3,500+ Facebook page likes, 3,500+ Twitter followers, 1,200 mailing list subscribers - described as "highly engaged".
• Team financial commitment: >$50,000 in monetary investment by team members + >$250,000 in sweat equity to date.
• Alpha build exists (screenshots shown).
• No revenue, pre-orders, Kickstarter, Wishlist count, or review data disclosed.

• Direct comps cited: Stardew Valley, Harvest Moon.
• Differentiation: Space/alien theme (claimed first in farming-sim genre), organic vs. synthetic dual-path narrative, Gene Splicing mechanic, tactile pixel art style.
• No competitive matrix or market-share analysis provided.

Team (slide 11):

• Brad Petry - Project Manager; 7 years professional game dev, 3 as PM; managed 6 released titles at Powerhouse Gaming.
• Christopher Bayliss - Programmer; 9 years experience, currently employed at Broadcom.
• Narongdej Teo - Lead Artist; 10+ years professional art, ongoing contract work for DOTA 2 / Valve.
• Richard Schmidbauer - Pixel Artist; 8+ years game art, multiple released titles.

Funding ask / use of funds:

• Minimum budget: $145,000/year × 2 years = $290,000 total. Delivers polished product without Terraforming. Claims "80%+ chance of positive ROI based on market research."
• Optimal budget: $295,000/year × 2 years = $590,000 total. Includes Multiplayer, Terraforming, Follower/Helper NPCs, and expanded content. Described as "highest projected ROI."
• Development timeline: ~2 years to Full Release (Beta at end of Y2-Q1 per Gantt).
• Phase breakdown: Feature/Vertical Dev 196 days → Bugfixing 60 days → Content/Horizontal Dev 169 days → Polish 50 days → Stabilize 35 days.
• No specific investor equity, valuation, or round structure disclosed.

• Archetype + why: Indie game production budget + revenue waterfall (premium one-time purchase model). The company is pre-revenue, seeking development funding for a fixed-scope project. The appropriate model is a project P&L / production budget model combined with a post-launch sales forecast - not an ongoing SaaS or subscription model. Structure: (1) Development cost schedule by phase; (2) Launch revenue model (units sold × price, net of platform royalty); (3) Break-even and ROI analysis.

• Forecast horizon & granularity:
• Development phase: Monthly or quarterly, 24 months (2 years to Full Release).
• Post-launch: Annual, 3–5 years (Years 1–5 post-launch). Indie games typically have a steep launch spike then long tail.

• Key drivers & assumptions:
• Development cost - min $145K/yr; optimal $295K/yr; scenario driver.
• Development duration - 2 years; risk: slippage is common in indie dev.
• Launch price per unit - $14.99–$19.99 USD (comparable to Stardew Valley at $14.99); needs confirmation.
• Platform royalty/fee - 30% standard Steam/Switch take-rate (70% net to developer).
• Launch-window unit sales - baseline 50K–150K units in Y1; derived from Stardew Valley comps (sold ~1M in first year) discounted heavily for unknown studio/IP.
• Sales curve - 60% of lifetime sales in Y1, 25% in Y2, 15% thereafter (typical indie pattern).
• Wishlist-to-sales conversion - ~10–15% (industry benchmark for indie on Steam); not verifiable from deck.
• Marketing spend - 10–15% of development budget; not disclosed.
• Refund rate - 5–8% (Steam standard).
• Team headcount cost - 4 core team members; salaries/contractor rates not disclosed; budget figures are all-in.
• Nintendo Switch port timing - simultaneous or 3–6 months after PC launch.
• Mobile/multiplayer - excluded from base model (contingent on additional funding per deck).

• Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
• Bear: Minimum budget ($290K total), PC-only launch, 30K lifetime units, $14.99 price.
• Base: Minimum budget, PC + Switch simultaneous, 100K lifetime units, $17.99 price.
• Bull: Optimal budget ($590K total), PC + Switch + Xbox/PS ports, 300K+ lifetime units, Multiplayer DLC revenue stream, $19.99 base price.
• Flex variables: unit sales volume, price, platform mix (royalty rate blends), development cost overrun, marketing spend.

• Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions - all drivers with / tags.
2. Development Cost Schedule - monthly burn by phase, cumulative cash consumed.
3. Post-Launch Revenue Forecast - units × price × (1 − platform fee) by platform and year.
4. P&L Summary - gross revenue, platform fees, net revenue, marketing, team costs, net income/loss.
5. Break-Even Analysis - units needed to recover total investment at each scenario.
6. Cash Flow - cumulative cash burn during development + post-launch recovery.
7. Scenario Toggle - Base / Bull / Bear with output summary table.