OROrigin Financial Model
AI/ML Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
AI + human-curated premium travel planning app with a membership model
professionals from Deloitte
Used by professionals from
About this model
Origin is a premium travel-planning app combining AI with human curators. Members use a mobile personal travel assistant for ideation, planning, booking, in-trip support, and follow-up, rather than assembling an itinerary through separate online travel agencies.
The commercial model combines a membership subscription for unlimited planning with booking revenue or margin on hotels, flights, and activities. A sample Bhutan trip totalled €12,680; member testimonials indicate repeat travel, including one member who had travelled four times since joining in May 2021.
The model cohorts members, tracks membership conversion, retention, trips per member, and booking value, then applies the relevant take rate. It incorporates curator capacity and cost, supplier-payment timing, customer acquisition, product investment, gross margin, cash burn, and runway across trip-volume scenarios.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Origin
origin.io
How to build a detailed financial model for Origin
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Origin model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
End-to-end travel service: ideation → planning → booking → on-trip support → post-trip.
- Mobile app (iOS on App Store)
- "Personal travel EA": human curators supercharged by ML/AI handle the full trip lifecycle
- Unlimited service for members across trip types (short and long-haul)
- One-tap payment system; example trip shown: €12,680 total (Bhutan, Six Senses properties)
- Differentiator vs. OTAs: personalisation + end-to-end execution, not just discovery
- Differentiator vs. traditional agencies (>$10k/trip, phone/email): mobile-first, software-tooled, faster
Market
- TAM: $1T global premium travel market
- SAM: $60.4B - bringing the offline premium travel market online
- CAGR: 19% for premium travel vertical, 2020–2026
- Funnel to SAM:
- 16M global premium travelers
- 10.1M US + EU segment
- 4.7M Millennial + Gen X (fastest-growing segment)
- Sources cited: Statista, AMR
Revenue model
- Membership subscription: members pay for unlimited trip-planning service; pricing not stated in deck
- Trip booking revenue: implied take-rate or margin on hotel/flight/activity bookings (example trip €12,680)
- Channels: mobile app (iOS) direct; no reseller/affiliate channel mentioned
Traction & metrics
- Customers: qualitative testimonials only; three named members identified (D.W., J.R., P.M.)
- P.M. described as "Member since May 2021 and traveled 4x with Origin"
- J.R. "converted to membership on trip purchase"
- D.W. "purchased membership & trip & just got back from 1st trip"
- Members "book multiple trips per quarter"
Unit economics
- LTV direction: "Broad spectrum of trips leads to high LTV"; membership drives "100% share of travel wallet"
- One concrete trip value: €12,680 (Bhutan example, Aug 2021)
Competition / moat
Competitive positioning (scatter matrix, axes: Personalized ↔ Not Personalized vs. Zero Scaling ↔ Hyper Scaling):
- Origin: top-right quadrant (Personalized + Hyper Scaling) - the uncrowded space
- Booking.com, Agoda, Airbnb: mid-chart, trending toward personalized but limited scaling
- Tourlane: personalized, mid-scaling
- TAUCK, Scott Dunn, Abercrombie & Kent: personalized but zero scaling
- Superhuman and Mighty cited as analogues for premium productivity subscriptions
Moat claims:
- Proprietary customer data accumulated across full trip lifecycle
- Specialised internal tooling + ML/AI (recommendation engine, logistics optimisation, content generation)
- Human curator workforce scaling model (Stitch Fix analogy)
- Self-propagating data flywheel: more trips → more data → better personalization → more trips
Team & funding ask / use of funds
Team:
- Eli Bressert - ML, AI & product; background: Netflix, Stitch Fix, Convoy
- Tamar van de Paal - Operations, marketing & partnerships; background: Google, Nextdoor, WPP, Mr & Mrs Smith, Airbnb, Uber, Wealthfront, Scott Dunn
- (Additional pedigree from Exceptional Travel noted)
Advisors / angels:
- Brad Klingenberg - Chief Algorithms Officer, Daily Harvest; formerly CAO at Stitch Fix
- John Johnson - Co-founder of BuzzFeed; owner of Harmony Hotel
Investors:
- Cavalry Ventures (named)
Contact: Eli Bressert, eli@origin.me, www.origin.me
Recommended financial model
Archetype + why: Membership + transaction (booking) P&L model - hybrid of SaaS ARR logic (for subscription) and marketplace GMV/take-rate logic (for trip booking revenue). Origin has two revenue streams that compound: recurring membership fee + per-trip booking margin. The membership drives frequency and wallet share, making this structurally similar to a concierge subscription with booking monetisation layered on.
Forecast horizon & granularity:
- Monthly for Year 1–2 (ramp phase); quarterly for Year 3–5
- 5-year total forecast (standard for early-stage fundraise)
Key drivers & assumptions:
| Driver | Value / Source |
|---|---|
| SAM - addressable premium travelers (US+EU) | 10.1M |
| Target sub-segment (Millennial + Gen X) | 4.7M |
| Premium travel market CAGR (2020–2026) | 19% |
| MoM member growth rate | 10–15% in early months; decelerating to 5% steady-state; typical early-stage consumer subscription |
| Annual membership fee | $X,XXX/yr (not disclosed); comparable to Superhuman ~$360/yr or luxury concierge $2,000–5,000/yr; set as a toggle |
| Average trip value (GMV per booking) | ~€10,000–15,000 per trip based on €12,680 Bhutan example and >$10k/trip agency reference |
| Trips per member per year | 4–6 (P.M. traveled 4x, "multiple trips per quarter" language) |
| Origin take-rate on trip GMV | 10–15%; standard for premium travel curation / agency model |
| Curator cost per active member per month | $X; model as headcount + tooling; key scaling variable |
| Curator-to-member ratio | 1:20 early → 1:50 at scale (Stitch Fix analogy cited) |
| Churn (annual membership) | 15–20% early; target <10% at scale; high LTV framing |
| S&M spend as % of revenue | 40–60% early-stage |
| Gross margin (blended) | 30–50%; subscription portion higher margin than booking take-rate |
Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Base: 10% MoM member growth, 4 trips/member/yr, 12% take-rate, 1:30 curator ratio
- Bull: 15% MoM growth, 6 trips/member/yr, 15% take-rate, membership fee at high end
- Bear: 5% MoM growth, 2 trips/member/yr, 10% take-rate, higher curator cost (slower AI scaling)
Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions - all toggles: member growth, fee, trip volume, take-rate, curator ratios
- Member Cohort Model - monthly cohorts, churn, retention curve
- P&L - Revenue (membership + booking take-rate), COGS (curator headcount + platform costs), Gross Profit, S&M, R&D, G&A, EBITDA
- GMV & Booking Revenue - separate from subscription, volume × ASP × take-rate
- Headcount Plan - curator scaling (key cost driver), tech, ops
- Cash Flow & Runway - given no raise amount disclosed, model to show months of runway at different burn levels
- Market Penetration - members as % of 4.7M TAM over time
- Unit Economics Summary - LTV, CAC, LTV:CAC, payback period (use assumed inputs until actuals provided)
Frequently asked
Is the Origin financial model free?+
Yes. The Origin model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Origin's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
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