SM

Scipher Medicine Financial Model

• Prism® test suite: Blood-based molecular signature tests predicting non-response to anti-TNF biologics before treatment begins. One test architecture, multiple disease indications.
• spectra® platform: Underlying network biology AI/ML engine; superimposes whole-blood RNAseq data onto protein interaction networks to identify patient-specific disease signatures and drug-response biomarkers.
• AIMS® data lake: Clinico-genomic database of tested patients, fed by every test ordered; monetized separately via pharma partnerships.
• Launched indications:
• PrismRA® (Rheumatoid Arthritis): Launched 2020/2021. 23-biomarker panel. 90% prediction accuracy; patient outcomes improve 40%; potential savings $7B.
• PrismIBD® (Ulcerative Colitis/IBD): 2022 launch planned. 90%+ prediction accuracy; outcomes improve 30%; potential savings $3B.
• PrismMS (Multiple Sclerosis): In development.

• Total autoimmune disease TAM: $42B.
• By indication:
• RA: 5M patients, $25B TAM.
• IBD: 2M patients, $10B TAM.
• MS: 1.3M patients, $7B TAM.
• Addressable drug class: anti-TNFs - $33B annual global sales, world's largest drug class; 65% of patients do not respond.
• Total ineffective drug spend in complex diseases: $552B/year globally; vs. oncology where only $78B ineffective vs. $26B effective.
• SAM/SOM not broken out in deck.
• Growth rates not stated; market share trajectory implied by provider adoption curve (slide 13).

Stream 1 - Diagnostics (testing revenue)

• Payers and PBMs reimburse for Prism® tests ordered by rheumatologists/gastroenterologists.
• Channel: Direct to payer/PBM (B2B contracts), providers order the test.
• 23 signed payer/PBM contracts; accessible to 21 million patients at time of deck. Named: Top-3 PBM, Top-5 BCBS plan, Largest health plan GPO, Largest Managed Medicaid plan.
• Test price / reimbursement rate: Not in deck.

Stream 2 - Data monetization (pharma partnerships)

• Pharma/biotech companies pay for access to AIMS® data lake insights and spectra® platform analysis for preclinical target ID and drug development.
• Deal value signed to date: $0.5B.
• Deal value under negotiation: $1B.
• Deal structure (milestones, royalties, upfront): Not in deck.

• $117M raised to date.
• 5 Prism® tests launched in 5 years, starting with PrismRA in 2021.
• 10k+ patients in clinico-genomic data lake at time of summary slide; data lake growth chart shows: 11,000 (2021) → 36,000 (2022) → 66,000 (2023) → 102,000 (2024).
• ~530 cumulative ordering providers (rheumatologists) by Dec of first year = 15% of all US rheumatologists.
• 85% repeat ordering rate among providers who ordered at least once.
• 23 signed payer/PBM contracts.
• 21 million patients with current payer coverage access.
• $0.5B in pharma data deal value signed; $1B under negotiation.
• Revenue figures ($): Not in deck.
• Cost / COGS per test: Not in deck.

• Cost per responding patient - Standard of Care: $172,961.
• Cost per responding patient - With PrismRA®: $112,000 (38% reduction).
• ACR50 response rate - Standard of Care: 11.1%; with PrismRA®: 39.6% (257% improvement; 4x more patients respond).
• Test ASP/reimbursement: Not in deck.
• CAC (provider or payer side): Not in deck.
• Gross margin: Not in deck.
• LTV: Not in deck.

• First-mover in autoimmune diagnostics; slide 23 draws explicit parallel to oncology precision medicine leaders (Foundation Medicine, Guardant, GRAIL, Tempus, Exact Sciences) - Scipher positioned as the sole equivalent in autoimmune.
• Moat sources stated or implied:
• 10+ years of research; RNA-based (PM 2.0 vs. DNA-based PM 1.0).
• Proprietary AIMS® clinico-genomic data lake - scale (102k patients by 2024) creates compounding barrier.
• Network biology AI platform (spectra®) - not replicable without matching data volume.
• Payer/PBM contract network (23 contracts, 21M covered lives) creates switching cost.
• No named direct competitors in deck.

• 120+ employees.
• Leadership (slide 21): CEO Alif Saleh (two exits); CFO John Strumbos ($560M raised); CTO Slava Akmaev PhD (AI/biomarker pioneer); CCO Chip Parkinson ($1B+ revenue); CMO Sam Asgarian MD (former CMO Thrive, $1B+ exit); GC Sam Davis ($1.8B SPAC).
• Advisors: 18th US Surgeon General; former Global President Inflammation & Immunology Pfizer; former SVP Immunology Janssen.
• Investors: UnitedHealth Group / Optum, Khosla Ventures, aMoon, Echo Health Ventures, Northpond Ventures.
• $117M raised to date.
• Round size being raised: Not in deck.
• Use of funds: Not in deck.

• Archetype + why: Dual-revenue diagnostics + data partnership model. Stream 1 is a volume-based diagnostic revenue model (tests × ASP × payer mix reimbursement rate), similar to lab/diagnostics companies (Myriad, Guardant). Stream 2 is a milestone/partnership revenue model (upfront + milestone payments from pharma collaborations). These are structurally distinct and should be modeled as separate P&L segments with a consolidated summary - a 3-statement model with segment revenue build.

• Forecast horizon & granularity: 5-year annual (Year 1–5), with Year 1 monthly for cash burn visibility given pre-profitability stage. Two revenue segments modeled separately.

• Key drivers & assumptions:

*Diagnostics segment*

• Total addressable patients per indication (RA: 5M, IBD: 2M, MS: 1.3M)
• % eligible for testing (biologic-naive patients starting anti-TNF)
• Provider penetration rate (15% of rheumatologists at Month 12)
• Provider ramp curve
• Tests per provider per year
• Repeat order rate: 85%
• ASP / reimbursement per test
• Payer coverage ramp (currently 21M lives / 23 contracts);
• COGS per test (lab processing, reagents, phlebotomy)

*Data monetization segment*

• Signed deal value: $0.5B
• Pipeline deal value: $1B
• Revenue recognition:
• New deals per year
• Data lake patients: 11k→36k→66k→102k (2021–2024);

*Cost structure*

• R&D (test development, platform):
• S&M (provider/payer sales force):
• G&A:
• Headcount: 120+;
• Capex (lab equipment):

• Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
• Base: Provider penetration ramps to 30% of rheumatologists by Year 3; ASP $1,800; 2 new pharma deals/year; IBD launches on schedule 2022.
• Bull: Provider penetration hits 40%+ by Year 3; ASP $2,200 (stronger payer pricing); MS launches Year 3; 3–4 new pharma deals/year; data lake hits 200k patients by 2025.
• Bear: Provider penetration stalls at 20% (reimbursement friction); ASP pressure to $1,200 (payer pushback); pharma deal pipeline closes slowly (1/year); MS delayed.

• Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions - all drivers above, toggleable by scenario
2. Diagnostics Revenue Build - by indication (RA / IBD / MS), provider count × tests × ASP
3. Data Partnership Revenue Build - deal pipeline, recognition schedule
4. P&L (consolidated + segmented) - gross margin by segment, EBITDA, net income
5. Headcount & Opex Build
6. Balance Sheet (simplified)
7. Cash Flow Statement - cash burn / runway (key for growth-stage)
8. Summary / Dashboard - KPIs: tests ordered, active providers, covered lives, data lake size, revenue by segment, EBITDA margin, cash runway