Stakester Financial Model
Marketplace Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
Mobile-first peer-to-peer skill-wagering platform where gamers and sports competitors challenge each other for cash prizes.
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About this model
Stakester is a mobile peer-to-peer platform where gamers and sports competitors challenge one another for cash prizes in skill-based contests. Players set terms and stakes, with the winner receiving the pot less the platform fee, and each challenge naturally invites new participants into the network.
The app had more than 15,000 active users shortly after launch and charges a 10% fee on challenge entry amounts, implying roughly $0.50 revenue on a $5 average entry. A subscription layer is mentioned but not priced, leaving transaction volume as the primary commercial engine.
The model is a marketplace GMV build. Active users, challenges per user, average stake, and referral-driven acquisition produce gross entry volume; the 10% fee creates revenue. Viral coefficient, repeat play, payment costs, compliance, prize economics, and subscription attach are the core sensitivities.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Stakester
stakester.com
How to build a detailed financial model for Stakester
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Stakester model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
- Mobile app enabling users to issue one-on-one or group skill-based challenges across Esports and real-world sports (e.g. beer pong, CrossFit)
- Challenger sets game, terms, and stake amount; winner collects pot minus Stakester fee
- Not classified as gambling in the UK and 39 US states (skill-based, non-random outcome)
- Referral/loyalty incentive for bringing new players into the community
- Viral by design: every challenge requires at least two players, so each user recruits another
- V1.0 built and launched as of April 2020
Market
- Primary Addressable Market: 2.4bn "addressable games" played in June (defined as competitive online games, 2+ players, 18+, above-average session frequency); sources: Newzoo, Steam, Statistica, Gamstat
- Revenue at 1% market share: $285m per annum - based on avg entry fee of $5 × 10% Stakester take-rate
- Target audience: gamers aged 18–35
- No formal TAM/SAM/SOM breakdown or market CAGR stated
Revenue model
Two revenue streams:
- Fees per challenge: 10% take-rate on each challenge entry fee; avg entry fee $5 → implied avg revenue per game = $0.50
- Subscription: mentioned but no pricing or tier detail given
Growth mechanism: referral incentives drive viral coefficient; community growth is central to strategy
Traction & metrics
- 15,000+ active users at time of deck
- 3,000 downloads in first 20 days post-launch (early April 2020)
- Manifesto video: 12,000+ views shared with fewer than 20 people
- Bottom-up Year 1 target: 200k games (same milestone competitor took 2 years; Stakester targets 6 months from launch) → $2m revenue per annum
- Survey of 600 UK/US 18+ gamers: 67% play 2hrs+ per day; 63% would back themselves financially; 47% play 21+ matches per day; 37% would stake $10+ per match
- No revenue, GMV, or retention figures disclosed
Unit economics
- Avg entry fee: $5
- Stakester take-rate: 10% → revenue per game = $0.50
- Survey suggests willingness to stake $10+ (37% of sample), implying potential for higher-value challenges
- No CAC, LTV, gross margin, or payback period data in deck
Competition / moat
- Closest named competitor achieved 200k games/month at age 2 (unnamed)
- Differentiation claimed: both Esports AND real-world sports (unique per deck); mobile-first; instant challenge setup; non-gambling classification
- Moat levers: viral/referral flywheel, community loyalty incentives, legal clarity in 40 jurisdictions
- No competitive landscape matrix or named competitor breakdown
Team & funding ask / use of funds
Team:
- Tom Fairey (Founder): former CRO, grew startup from 0 to £125m valuation in 2 years
- Monika Hathaway (Head of Growth): former MD at Lewis PR; gaming market specialist
- Leander Hambley (Lead Developer): veteran games developer; co-created "Prison Architect"
- Andy Charlton (Head of Product): online gaming and gambling background
- Gary J. Foreman (CTO): co-founder of Rockstar Games (Grand Theft Auto)
Partnerships: ESL (Europe's #1 eSports League) for distribution and awareness
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: Consumer marketplace / transactional + SaaS subscription hybrid. Core engine is GMV-based (games played × avg stake × take-rate); subscription is a secondary recurring layer. Model should be a marketplace GMV forecast with dual revenue streams (transaction fees + subscription MRR), building to a 3-statement P&L once operating costs are known.
- Forecast horizon & granularity: 3 years; monthly for Year 1 (critical for showing ramp from current 15k users), quarterly for Years 2–3.
- Key drivers & assumptions:
- Monthly active users (MAU) at launch: 15,000 growing via viral coefficient
- Viral/referral coefficient (new users per existing user per month): 0.10–0.20; rationale: deck claims inherently viral but no K-factor data provided
- Games per MAU per month: ~30 (implied by "21+ matches per day" survey, discounted for casual users)
- Average stake per game (entry fee): $5; potential upside to $10+ per survey data
- Take-rate (transaction fee): 10%
- Subscription ARPU: ~$5–10/month; rationale: no pricing disclosed; benchmarked against casual gaming sub tiers
- Subscription attach rate: 10–20% of MAU; rationale: no data in deck
- Year 1 games target: 200,000/month by month 6 from launch
- Year 1 revenue target: $2m annualised
- Geography mix: UK + US initially; US-dominant given larger market
- Churn rate (monthly): 5–8%; rationale: social/competitive apps typically higher early churn pre-network-effects
- Referral incentive cost as % of revenue: 5–10%; rationale: "huge incentives" mentioned but no $ figure
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Base: viral coefficient 0.12, avg stake $5, sub attach 12%, monthly churn 7%
- Bull: viral coefficient 0.20, avg stake $8 (more $10+ stakers), sub attach 20%, churn 5%
- Bear: viral coefficient 0.05, avg stake $5, sub attach 8%, churn 10% (slower network build)
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions - all drivers with scenario toggle (Base / Bull / Bear)
- User Growth - MAU waterfall (new installs, referrals, churn)
- GMV & Revenue - games played × stake × take-rate; subscription MRR
- P&L - revenue, referral incentive costs, platform/infra, headcount, marketing; EBITDA
- Cash & Runway - burn rate, cash balance (no raise data so model as pre-raise)
- Dashboard - MAU, GMV, revenue, take-rate, burn KPIs
Frequently asked
Is the Stakester financial model free?+
Yes. The Stakester model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Stakester's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
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