Wayward Strand Financial Model

• Heartfelt, interactive narrative game with simultaneous multi-character story threads playing out in real time aboard an airborne hospital.
• Player controls Casey, a teenage girl who explores the hospital over three days, following characters and affecting conversations.
• Unique "living world" mechanic: NPCs continue their stories independently of the player; time passes for all characters simultaneously.
• Fully voiced cast; dialogue-driven; no fail state; accessible to all ages and skill levels.
• Single playthrough: 2–3 hours; designed for "a dozen or more" replays to see all content.
• Custom toolset built to manage the simultaneous story / Gantt-chart narrative structure.
• Proprietary IP and toolset; "like no other game."

Not explicitly stated in deck. Based on product description:

• Premium buy-to-play title: one-time purchase price per unit. Standard for narrative indie games of this type (e.g., Firewatch, Night in the Woods).
• Primary channels: Steam (PC/Mac), console storefronts (Switch, PS4/5, Xbox) - typical indie distribution stack.
• Potential secondary revenue: soundtrack DLC, physical edition (rare for indie; low probability).
• No subscription, F2P, or DLC-driven monetisation indicated by the deck.

Note: Game was presented pre-launch; the deck is a project pitch (publisher/grant). Wayward Strand has since shipped (July 2022) but no post-launch data appears here.

Not explicitly called out as a "competition" slide, but moat implied:

• Unique simultaneous-narrative toolset built in-house.
• "Like no other game" positioning - simultaneous multi-character real-time narrative is the claimed differentiator.
• Comparable titles referenced by genre (not slide): empathetic narrative games (Firewatch, Oxenfree, Night in the Woods) - these are implied peers by style but not cited in the deck.
• Accessibility angle: designed for non-gamers, all ages.

• Developer: Ghost Pattern - diverse team, first project together as a studio.
• Prior credits span: Armello, Cosmic Express, The Sims FreePlay, experimental theatre, interactive film.
• Contact / website: waywardstrand.com

• Archetype + why: Premium indie game P&L / project budget model. This is a pre-launch project pitch (not a SaaS, not a marketplace, not a recurring-revenue business). The right model is a project-economics model: development budget vs. projected unit sales revenue, split by platform/storefront, netting out platform fees, with a simple P&L showing development cost recovery and potential upside. If the pitch is to a publisher, a recoupment waterfall is appropriate.

• Forecast horizon & granularity: 3–5 years post-launch; monthly for Year 1 (launch spike + tail), annual for Years 2–5. Development phase budget tracked separately (pre-revenue).

• Key drivers & assumptions (tag or):
• Launch price (USD): ~$20–$25 suggested retail; typical for ~3-hour narrative indie with replayability - set as an input.
• Unit sales - launch window (Month 1): 5,000–20,000 units base case; narrative indie benchmark (Firewatch ~500k lifetime but high-profile; lower-profile titles 10k–50k lifetime).
• Platform mix: 60% Steam, 20% Switch, 10% PS4/5, 10% Xbox - adjustable.
• Platform fee (revenue share): 30% standard storefront cut; 20% for Steam post-200k threshold (unlikely at this scale).
• Sales decay curve: Launch spike Month 1, 40–50% drop Month 2, long tail - standard indie S-curve.
• Playthrough time 2–3 hours - informs review score / word-of-mouth / replayability positioning.
• Team size: ~5 FTE (visible in team photo slide 14); dev cost modelled as burn rate × runway.
• Dev burn rate: AUD ~$60–80k/month for 5-person Australian indie studio - adjust to actuals.
• Dev timeline to launch: based on deck date vs. known ship date (July 2022); if pitching ~2021, 12–18 months runway needed.
• Marketing / PR budget: 10–15% of projected launch revenue; typical indie spend.
• Refund rate: 5–8% (Steam norm for short narrative games with refund-window risk).
• Replayability effect on revenue: - modest; does not translate directly to incremental revenue in premium model but supports word-of-mouth assumption.

• Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
• Bear: 5,000 lifetime units; low review score; minimal press.
• Base: 15,000–25,000 lifetime units; positive niche reception; community word-of-mouth.
• Bull: 50,000+ units; breakout coverage (e.g., Nintendo Indie World feature, major press); sequel potential.
• Flex variables: Unit price, total units sold, platform mix, launch timing, dev runway cost.

• Required sheets / outputs:
• Assumptions (all inputs in one place: price, units by platform, burn, timeline)
• Development Budget (total dev cost, remaining runway, headcount × months)
• Revenue Model (units × price × (1 – platform fee) by platform, monthly, with decay curve)
• P&L Summary (Revenue – COGS – Dev Cost – Marketing = Net Income; payback period)
• Cash Flow (monthly: burn pre-launch, revenue post-launch, break-even date)
• Publisher Recoupment Waterfall (if publisher deal: advance, recoup threshold, revenue share splits post-recoup)
• Sensitivity Table (units sold × launch price → net revenue / break-even)