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Johnson Controls (JCI) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Johnson Controls. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Johnson Controls’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$20.44B
from $22.33B
FCF FY30
$1.27B
Margin 6.2%
Enterprise value
$21.18B
0.9× LTM revenue
Equity value
$13.05B
Net debt $8.13B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
-1.8%
-10.0%baseline -1.8%40.0%
Gross margin
33.7%
5.0%baseline 33.7%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
2.2%
0.0%baseline 2.2%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Johnson Controls forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What is Johnson Controls' core business focus after its recent divestiture?+

Johnson Controls is now a global leader in smart, healthy, and sustainable commercial building technologies, providing HVAC, fire detection, security systems, and building automation controls. This strategic pivot followed the $8.1 billion divestiture of its Residential and Light Commercial HVAC business, making it a pure-play commercial building solutions provider.

How does Johnson Controls generate revenue with its hybrid business model?+

Johnson Controls operates a hybrid business model, combining the asset-heavy manufacturing of building products with an asset-light, high-margin services business. The services segment provides installation, maintenance, and digital optimization via its OpenBlue platform, complementing its product sales.

What is Johnson Controls' typical capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue?+

Johnson Controls typically allocates 2.0% to 2.5% of its revenue to capital expenditure, which translates to approximately $500 million to $600 million annually. This spending is primarily split between 60% for maintenance, such as factory upkeep and vehicle fleet, and 40% for growth initiatives like digital infrastructure and new product tooling.

What is the primary purpose of a financial model for Johnson Controls (JCI)?+

A financial model for Johnson Controls evaluates the company's equity valuation and cash flow generation. Its main purpose is to determine if the company's transition to a pure-play commercial building solutions provider justifies a premium valuation multiple.

Can I download an Excel financial model for Johnson Controls (JCI)?+

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model is available for Johnson Controls (JCI). This model provides a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030, allowing for detailed analysis of the company's future financial performance.

How did Johnson Controls' recent divestiture impact its financial strategy?+

The $8.1 billion divestiture of its Residential and Light Commercial HVAC business generated approximately $5.0 billion in net cash proceeds. These funds are being deployed into an accelerated share repurchase program, reflecting a strategic focus on shareholder returns and a pure-play commercial building model.

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