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Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Packaging Corporation of America. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Packaging Corporation of America’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$8.99B
from $7.80B
FCF FY30
$763.1M
Margin 8.5%
Enterprise value
$11.56B
1.5× LTM revenue
Equity value
$9.77B
Net debt $1.79B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
2.9%
-10.0%baseline 2.9%40.0%
Gross margin
23.0%
5.0%baseline 23.0%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
7.1%
0.0%baseline 7.1%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Packaging Corporation of America forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Other Materials forecasts

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Frequently asked

What does Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) do?+

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a leading North American manufacturer of containerboard and corrugated packaging products, as well as uncoated freesheet paper. The company operates a vertically integrated network of mills and plants to convert raw materials into finished packaging solutions.

What are the primary revenue drivers for Packaging Corporation of America?+

PCA's revenue is predominantly driven by its Packaging segment, which accounts for approximately 92% of its total revenue. The company's financial performance is also significantly influenced by cyclical containerboard pricing and the overall demand for corrugated packaging products.

What is Packaging Corporation of America's typical capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue?+

Packaging Corporation of America typically allocates 8-10% of its revenue to capital expenditures. Approximately 60% of this capex is for maintenance, while the remaining 40% is directed towards growth initiatives such as machine conversions and energy independence projects.

What are key considerations for an equity valuation of Packaging Corporation of America?+

Key considerations for an equity valuation of PCA include the company's ability to successfully integrate recent acquisitions, such as the Greif containerboard business. Analysts should also assess its capacity to manage cyclical containerboard pricing and consistently generate free cash flow for shareholder returns.

What is the purpose of the downloadable financial model for Packaging Corporation of America?+

The downloadable financial model for Packaging Corporation of America serves as a comprehensive tool for equity valuation and scenario planning. It helps analysts evaluate the company's strategic initiatives, including acquisition integration and free cash flow generation.

How has Packaging Corporation of America's balance sheet been impacted by recent events?+

As of late 2025, PCA's total assets were approximately $11.0 billion, with goodwill and intangibles representing 15-20% of this total. This proportion significantly increased due to a $1.2 billion goodwill addition from the $1.8 billion Greif acquisition completed in September 2025.

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