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Paychex (PAYX) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Paychex. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Paychex’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$7.00B
from $4.91B
FCF FY30
$1.85B
Margin 26.4%
Enterprise value
$25.43B
5.2× LTM revenue
Equity value
$25.83B
Net debt -$404.7M
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
7.4%
-10.0%baseline 7.4%40.0%
Gross margin
68.9%
5.0%baseline 68.9%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
3.1%
0.0%baseline 3.1%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Paychex forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What services does Paychex provide to its clients?+

Paychex, Inc. offers integrated human capital management (HCM) solutions, including payroll processing, benefits administration, human resources support, and insurance services. These services are primarily targeted at small to medium-sized businesses (SMBs).

What are the primary sources of revenue for Paychex?+

Paychex generates revenue mainly from its Management Solutions, which include core payroll processing and HR software, and PEO and Insurance Solutions. Additionally, the company earns significant interest income from client payroll funds held before disbursement.

What is the assumed capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue in the Paychex financial model?+

The financial model assumes a Capex as a percentage of revenue of approximately 3.08%. This capital expenditure is heavily skewed towards growth, particularly for capitalized software development related to its HCM platform and integration efforts.

What is the main objective of the Paychex financial model?+

The primary objective of the Paychex financial model is to evaluate the company's equity valuation and earnings power. It specifically assesses the accretion, margin impact, and synergy realization from the recent Paycor HCM acquisition to determine a target share price.

Is there a downloadable financial model available for Paychex?+

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model is available for Paychex. This general corporate model provides a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030 for analysis.

How did the Paycor acquisition affect Paychex's balance sheet?+

The $4.09 billion acquisition of Paycor HCM significantly impacted Paychex's balance sheet, increasing total assets to approximately $15 billion. Notably, goodwill and intangible assets spiked considerably, now representing a major portion of non-client-fund assets.

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