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Republic Services (RSG) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Republic Services. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Republic Services’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$23.87B
from $14.96B
FCF FY30
$5.37B
Margin 22.5%
Enterprise value
$76.38B
5.1× LTM revenue
Equity value
$63.80B
Net debt $12.57B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
9.8%
-10.0%baseline 9.8%40.0%
Gross margin
39.7%
5.0%baseline 39.7%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
11.4%
0.0%baseline 11.4%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Republic Services forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What services does Republic Services (RSG) provide?+

Republic Services is a leading provider of environmental services in North America, offering solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, recycling, and environmental solutions. The company operates a vertically integrated, asset-heavy business model, with approximately 80% of its revenue considered recurring.

What are the primary revenue drivers for Republic Services?+

Republic Services' revenue is primarily driven by its Collection segment, which accounts for approximately 68% of total revenue, alongside contributions from Landfill, Environmental Solutions, Transfer, and Recycling. The company benefits from highly predictable, annuity-like revenue streams, influenced by pricing power, volume trends, and cyclical environmental solutions work.

What is Republic Services' typical capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue?+

Republic Services consistently allocates 10-12% of its revenue to capital expenditures. Approximately 70% of this capex is for maintenance, such as fleet replacement and landfill cell construction, while 30% is for growth initiatives like Polymer Centers and renewable natural gas facilities.

What is the assumed revenue growth rate for Republic Services in the financial model?+

The financial model for Republic Services assumes a revenue growth rate of approximately 9.79%. This assumption helps forecast the company's top-line performance over the FY2026–FY2030 forecast horizon.

How does the financial model for Republic Services assess its intrinsic value?+

The financial model evaluates Republic Services' equity valuation and free cash flow generation. It allows an analyst to assess the impact of factors such as pricing power, volume trends, cyclical environmental solutions work, and ongoing M&A roll-ups on the company's long-term intrinsic value.

Can I download an Excel financial model for Republic Services?+

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model is available for Republic Services (RSG). This model provides a detailed forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030, allowing for in-depth analysis of the company's financial performance.

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