AC

Accel Club Financial Model

Accel Club is not a product company - it is an acquisition platform. It:

1. Sources Amazon FBA seller businesses via proprietary deal-flow (brokers: EmpireFlippers, Flippa, DragonFlip, Latona's; cold outreach; community mining; best-seller parsing).
2. Acquires at 3–4x EV/EBITDA (or EV/SDE).
3. Integrates acquired sellers into a shared operational platform (marketing, supply chain, tech, analytics).
4. Grows revenue and EBITDA post-acquisition (target 5x EV uplift).
5. Uses leverage on the growing EBITDA base to finance subsequent acquisitions - a self-reinforcing flywheel.
6. Ultimate exit: re-rate acquired portfolio from 3x to D2C/consumer multiples (15–40x+).

Value creation waterfall (slide 25/26): Start EV → Revenue improvements (marketing & sales optimization; geographic & platform expansion; product improvements) → Cost improvements (supply chain optimization; production cost reduction; accounting standardization) → Financing of working capital (Leverage) → Multiple Arbitrage / Multiple Growth → Exit EV. Target total uplift: 5x.

• Amazon 3P seller revenue (2020): $295Bn
• Amazon GMV split (2020): 62% from third-party sellers; 30% 10-year CAGR
• Amazon GMV history (3P + Retail, $Bn): 2010: 21+42=63; 2011: 34+56=90; 2012: 45+73=118; 2013: 63+73=136; 2014: 78+88=166; 2015: 91+99=190; 2016: 117+103=220; 2017: 137+114=251; 2018: 160+117=277; 2019: 200+135=335; 2020: 295+180=475
• 3P share trend: 33% (2010) → 62% (2020), consistently rising
• Universe of Amazon 3P sellers: 8.0M registered; 2.1M active; 250k with sales >$0.1M
• Target universe: 70k sellers with sales >$0.5M; 40k sellers with sales >$1M
• Sellers willing to exit at 3–4x EV/EBITDA or EV/SDE
• Acquisition deal multiples (Empire Flippers data): majority of deals trade at 1.5–3x; top decile reaches 4–5x; multiples increase with business size up to ~4.5x at $10M
• No SAM/SOM figures explicitly stated.

Accel Club's revenue = consolidated revenue of all acquired Amazon FBA businesses in portfolio. Revenue is e-commerce product sales on Amazon (and multichannel post-acquisition). The model earns from:

• Top-line sales of consumer/physical goods products on Amazon marketplace
• EBITDA improvement post-acquisition (operational leverage across portfolio)
• Financial return on equity via leveraged acquisitions + multiple arbitrage at exit (IRR play, not fee income)

There is no SaaS fee, marketplace fee, or subscription revenue - this is a holding company / roll-up. The "revenue" in a financial model context means portfolio GMV/revenue from Amazon product sales.

Amazon referral fee charged to 3P sellers is typically 15%; FBA fulfillment fee ~$3/product - these are cost inputs at the acquired-business level.

Qualitative indicators only:

• Deal sourcing funnel described; conversion rate into deals cited as ~10% (sourced from Thrasio interviews, not Accel Club's own data)
• "Deal sourcing built to process potential targets in days and close deals in weeks"
• No closed acquisitions, portfolio size, or revenue figure shown.

• Acquisition entry multiple: 3–4x EV/EBITDA
• Target exit multiple: 15x (FMCG), 28x (consumer), >40x (D2C)
• Total EV uplift target: 5x from Start EV to Exit EV
• Leverage used to finance acquisitions (reduces equity required, amplifies IRR)
• Amazon referral fee: ~15% of GMV
• FBA fulfillment: ~$3/product
• Settlement cycle for 3P sellers: every 15 days
• No specific EBITDA margin, CAC, payback, or LTV numbers in deck.

Not explicitly called out as a "competition" slide. Implicit moat claims:

• Proprietary scouting process (parsing Amazon categories, community sourcing)
• A-class team: ex-Yandex Foodtech ($1Bn+ GMV), Busfor (acquired by BlaBlaCar $100M+), BCG, McKinsey, RDIF, JPMorgan
• Operational platform (100+ seller tools: Helium 10, Keepa, Sellerboard, etc.) enabling fast DD and execution
• First-mover advantage in European/CIS market implied (North Wall Capital described as one of the first European e-commerce roll-up lenders)
• Key competitor archetype (Thrasio, etc.) referenced indirectly via interview data but no competitive matrix shown.

Team (slide 15–16):

• Max Firsov - Co-founder & CEO; ex-CEO Yandex Food-tech ($1Bn+ GMV); Founder/CEO Foodfox (acquired by Yandex); 15+ years e-commerce & finance
• Nick Tuzenko - Co-founder & Managing Director; ex-MD Busfor (sold to BlaBlaCar $100M+); BCG; MIPT
• Askar Bagaviev - VP Acquisitions; ex-BCG Project Leader; ex-Head of Digital CROC; ex-COO NIMB
• Daria Mash - Head of M&A; ex-Mindrock Capital; ex-Dentsu Aegis; KPMG M&A; 12+ years IB/M&A
• Maria Krot - VP Operations; ex-Yandex.Eats, Uber.Eats, Alfa-bank, L'Oreal
• Ruslan Khabibov - CFO; ex-RDIF, McKinsey, VTB Capital; $1Bn+ in closed deals
• Marina Morosanova - Head of Talent; ex-JPMorgan HR BP
• Max Sergeev - Head of Marketplace Efficiency; ex-Yandex Foodtech data science

Investors (slide 18):

• North Wall Capital (European e-commerce roll-up lender)
• Redseed (Gregory Finger, ex-DST Global; Ilya Shirokov, founder Joom $1Bn+)
• Flyer One Ventures (CEE IT; backed by Horizon Capital / IFC / EBRD)
• Wladimir Klitschko

• Archetype + why: Amazon aggregator / roll-up LBO model. This is a leveraged buy-and-build: equity deployed to acquire EBITDA-generating Amazon businesses at low entry multiples, debt layered on growing EBITDA base to fund subsequent acquisitions, exit via multiple expansion. Best modelled as a portfolio roll-up + leveraged acquisition model combining: (a) per-acquisition unit economics (entry EV, EBITDA, debt/equity split, post-acq revenue/EBITDA growth), (b) consolidated portfolio P&L (revenue, EBITDA, interest), (c) equity IRR / MOIC at exit. A simplified 3-statement is needed at portfolio level; no single-company DCF.

• Forecast horizon & granularity: 5-year horizon (Year 1–5), annual. Monthly granularity only for working capital / cash timing in Year 1. Acquisitions modelled as discrete events on a deployment schedule.

• Key drivers & assumptions:

*Deal pipeline & deployment:*

• Number of acquisitions per year
• Average acquisition size (revenue)
• Average EBITDA margin at acquisition
• Entry multiple: 3–4x EV/EBITDA
• Debt / equity split per deal
• Debt interest rate

*Post-acquisition value creation:*

• Revenue CAGR post-integration
• EBITDA margin improvement
• Time to full integration
• 5x total EV uplift from Start EV to Exit EV

*Amazon fee structure (cost inputs):*

• Amazon referral fee: 15% of GMV
• FBA fulfillment cost: ~$3/unit

*Exit / multiple re-rate:*

• Exit EV/EBITDA multiple: 15x (FMCG-style), 25–28x (consumer), >40x (D2C)
• Current 3P entry multiple: 3x
• Target blended exit:

*Equity returns:*

• IRR target
• Hold period:

• Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear):
• Base: 4 acquisitions/year at avg $1M revenue, 25% EBITDA margin, 3.5x entry, 12x exit, 50% debt, 10% interest; 30% post-acq revenue CAGR.
• Bull: 8 acquisitions/year at avg $1.5M revenue, 30% EBITDA margin, 3x entry, 20x exit, 65% debt; D2C multiple re-rate achieved.
• Bear: 2 acquisitions/year, 20% EBITDA margin, 4x entry, 8x exit, 40% debt; slower post-acq growth (15% CAGR); higher interest rates.
• Flex variables: deal pace, entry multiple, exit multiple, post-acq EBITDA margin, debt %, interest rate.

• Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions - all drivers in one place (deal pace, per-deal metrics, debt terms, growth rates, exit multiples)
2. Deal Log - one row per acquisition (date, seller name, revenue, EBITDA, entry multiple, EV, debt, equity, projected exit)
3. Per-Deal P&L - revenue, COGS, gross profit, EBITDA pre/post integration for each acquired business
4. Consolidated P&L - portfolio roll-up: total revenue, EBITDA, D&A, EBIT, interest, EBT, tax, net income
5. Debt Schedule - total debt outstanding, draws per acquisition, repayment, interest
6. Cash Flow & Equity Deployment - equity deployed per period, operating CF, debt service, net cash
7. Portfolio Valuation / Exit Bridge - EV at entry vs exit per deal; total portfolio EV; equity value
8. Equity Returns - IRR, MOIC per deal and blended; sensitivity table (exit multiple vs EBITDA growth)
9. Value Creation Waterfall - Start EV → Revenue uplift → Cost uplift → Leverage → Multiple arbitrage → Exit EV (mirrors slide 25)
10. Dashboard - KPI summary: # deals, total equity deployed, total portfolio revenue, total EBITDA, blended IRR, MOIC