AFAfrocenchix Financial Model
Consumer/DTC Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
D2C brand selling natural, vegan-certified hair-care products for afro and curly hair.
professionals from Deloitte
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About this model
Afrocenchix is a DTC hair-care brand for afro and curly hair, selling vegan-certified natural products across core shampoo, conditioner, cream, spray, and oil SKUs. It focuses on formulation, inclusivity, and faster R&D than traditional beauty brands.
Ninety-five percent of sales are direct through Shopify, with selective retail distribution through partners such as Whole Foods and Holland & Barrett. It reported strong organic growth alongside paid acquisition and product sets priced from travel sizes to full routines.
The model is DTC consumables P&L. Traffic, conversion, repeat orders, average basket, SKU mix, retail doors, COGS, fulfillment, and CAC build revenue and contribution margin. Retention and wholesale expansion are key drivers.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Afrocenchix
afrocenchix.com
How to build a detailed financial model for Afrocenchix
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Afrocenchix model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
- 6 core SKUs + accessories: Swirl (silicone-free conditioner), Swish (sulphate-free shampoo), Sheen (moisturising hair spray), Smooth (moisturising hair cream), Seal (hair oil), and a styling butter in beta.
- RRP: £5.99–£15.99 for travel sizes; £40–£85 for full-sized sets.
- 91–100% naturally derived ingredients; only vegan-certified brand in the category.
- R&D cycle 6–12 months (2x faster than industry standard); all products developed in-house and tested on real afro hair.
- Education-led: expert content + chatbot (in beta May 2021) as part of the "making natural simple" brand platform.
Market
- TAM: Global afro product market - $48.6B+.
- Population: 3.2 billion people globally with afro/curly hair.
- Demand signal: Black and mixed-race women spend 6x more on cosmetics than average; 70% of Black women feel the high street does not meet their health and beauty needs (Superdrug report).
- Generational shift: 54% of Gen Z vs 30% Baby Boomers in the US identify as Black and Brown.
- No SAM/SOM figures in deck.
- UK market leadership targeted by 2022.
Revenue model
- Primary channel: D2C via Shopify (95% of sales).
- Secondary channel: retail (Whole Foods UK, Holland & Barrett, independent health food stores; Superdrug launching Summer 2021).
- Pricing: travel sizes £5.99–£15.99; sets £40–£85.
- Volume target stated in use-of-funds: outsourcing to sell 379K bottles.
- Revenue figure: redacted ($$$) for last 12 months and run rate.
- Fundraise amount: redacted ($$$), split across Team / R&D+Manufacturing / Marketing.
Traction & metrics
- Last 12 months revenue: redacted. Revenue run rate: redacted.
- Channel split: 95% D2C.
- Monthly growth rate: 6% from paid acquisition; 82% organic.
- Online traffic: avg monthly traffic redacted; up 21% vs prior quarter. 1st page on Google for afro hair care.
- Online sales growth: 147x from Q1 2017 to Q1 2021 (Shopify store launched Q1 2017; pre-seed investment received Q4 2018; team hired Q4 2019; product launch Q2 2020; paid ads turned off after Q2 2020; Q1 2021 is the highest bar).
- YoY revenue growth (Jun 2019–Jun 2020): 1,670%.
- Customer reviews: 1,500+; average rating 4.7/5.
- Black Pound Day one-day sales: redacted ($$$).
- Projections over next 5 years: redacted ($$$+).
Unit economics
- Adjusted LTV:CAC ratio: 17:1. LTV and CAC absolute values redacted ($$:$$).
- LTV measured over 3.5 years of real customer spend, reduced conservatively for retention rate.
- Top 1% of customers: spent $$$$ in last 2 years (redacted).
- Blended CAC: includes Facebook and Google spend.
- Average basket size: redacted ($$); up 56% over last 3 years.
- CAC payback: recovered within the first basket.
- Customer retention rate: redacted (#%); stated as well above industry standard of 27%.
- Average repurchase interval: 1.6 months (improved from every 5 months previously).
- Online margin: redacted (#%); retail margin: redacted (#%). Strong margins cited due to in-house development and vertical supply chain integration.
Competition / moat
- Market positioned as fragmented: incumbents are either toxic/synthetic (Cantu, Dark & Lovely, ORS, Revlon Realistic) or wholesale-only natural brands (SheaMoisture/Unilever, Carol's Daughter/L'Oréal, FORM/P&G).
- White space: safe + sustainable + D2C - afrocenchix claims this quadrant alone.
- Notable comparable exits: SheaMoisture ~$700M (Unilever); Carol's Daughter ~$27M (L'Oréal); FORM ~$40M (P&G); CurlMix raised $1.2M.
- Moat: 1,500+ reviews / 4.7-star brand equity; direct customer data flywheel; organic growth (82% of acquisition); in-house R&D; vegan certification.
- Retail entry: first afro hair brand in Whole Foods UK and Holland & Barrett.
Team & funding ask / use of funds
- Founders: Rachael Corson (LLB/MSc Birmingham/UCL; ex-Tesco, Kraft) - Strategy, Legal, E-commerce; Joycelyn Mate (BA Birmingham; ex-Tesco, SEO London) - Finance, Logistics, Retail Sales.
- Team: 9 people including Marketing Manager, Digital Marketing Manager, Supply Chain Manager, Content/Social Coordinator, Full-Stack Developer, Lead Production Assistant.
- Raise amount: redacted ($$$). Split three ways - all three buckets labelled $$$.
- Use of funds:
- Team: Cosmetic Chemist, Content Coordinator, Customer Experience Coordinator.
- R&D + Manufacturing: 3 product releases; lab equipment; outsourcing to sell 379K bottles; scaling in-house ops.
- Marketing: influencers, content creation, digital ads.
- Awards: WeWork Creator Award 2018 & Global 2019; KPMG Black Entrepreneurs Award 2018; Precious Awards 2019. Press: Glamour, Vogue, Forbes, BBC, Cosmopolitan, Refinery29, Evening Standard, Metro, Hello.
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: DTC consumer goods P&L with retail channel layer. Revenue is primarily unit-volume driven (bottles/SKUs sold) via a Shopify DTC channel, with a secondary retail wholesale channel at a different margin. Matches the company's stated 95% D2C / 5% retail split and the 379K bottle volume target. A cohort-based LTV model sits alongside to validate the 17:1 LTV:CAC and project retention-driven repeat revenue. Not SaaS, not marketplace, not 3-statement at this stage - the priority output is a 3–5 year P&L and unit economics dashboard.
- Forecast horizon & granularity: Monthly for Year 1 (2021 Seed period); quarterly for Years 2–5 (through Series A at 2023–24 and Global Expansion 2024–25).
- Key drivers & assumptions:
| Driver | Value |
|---|---|
| LTV:CAC ratio | 17:1 |
| CAC payback period | 1 basket / immediate |
| Avg repurchase interval | 1.6 months |
| Avg basket size (£) | Redacted; shown as $$ |
| Customer retention rate | Redacted; >#27% industry benchmark |
| D2C revenue share | 95% |
| Retail revenue share | 5% |
| Monthly organic growth rate | 82% of acquisitions are organic |
| Monthly new customer acquisition growth | 6% |
| Volume target (near-term) | 379K bottles |
| SKU count | 6 core + accessories, +3 new launches planned |
| Avg DTC price point | £5.99–£85 (travel to full sets); blended ~£25–£35 |
| DTC gross margin | Redacted; described as "strong" |
| Retail gross margin | Redacted; lower than DTC |
| Headcount additions | +3 hires this round; team currently 9 |
| R&D spend | Lab equipment + outsourced manufacturing for 3 launches |
| Marketing spend (% of revenue) | Seed-funded digital ads + influencers; currently heavy organic |
| YoY revenue growth (historical) | 1,670% (Jun 2019–Jun 2020) |
| Forecast revenue growth (5-year) | Redacted ($$$+) |
| US/West Africa expansion timing | 2023 |
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Base: 6% monthly new customer acquisition growth, DTC margin at 65%, retention at 35%, 3 new SKUs on time.
- Bull: retention climbs to 45%+, Superdrug retail launch accelerates wholesale revenue, 5-year projections hit, US launch on schedule 2023.
- Bear: paid acquisition costs spike (CAC deteriorates), Superdrug launch delayed, retail margin compression, FX headwind on US expansion.
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions dashboard (all input drivers in one place)
- Revenue build: DTC volume × ASP + retail wholesale channel
- Cohort LTV model (monthly cohorts, 1.6-month repurchase cycle, retention curve)
- COGS & gross margin by channel (DTC vs retail)
- Opex P&L (team, R&D, marketing, fulfilment/ops)
- Unit economics summary (CAC, LTV, LTV:CAC, payback period)
- Scenario toggle (Base / Bull / Bear)
- Funding waterfall: use of raise proceeds mapped to cost lines
Frequently asked
Is the Afrocenchix financial model free?+
Yes. The Afrocenchix model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Afrocenchix's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
Created by ex-finance professionals
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