CC

Chamberlain Coffee Financial Model

• Dry coffee products: single-serve pods, coffee bags, ground coffee (5 flavors).
• Matcha products: Classic Matcha, Flavored Matcha, Latte Powder; Matcha Latte RTD launching Q1 2025.
• RTD canned oat milk latte: launched 2023.
• Value prop: Gen Z identity brand built on Emma Chamberlain's content creator following ("cold brew queen"); ceremonial-grade matcha; flavored/indulgent options targeting Gen Z taste preferences.
• All products positioned as premium but accessible across mainstream retail.

• Total Global Coffee (Roast + RTD) + Matcha Market: $351Bn.
• Gen Z market share of that combined market: $71Bn.
• Roast Coffee CAGR: +2.7%.
• Coffee RTD CAGR: +5.5%.
• Matcha CAGR: +12.0%.
• Cold brew coffee market CAGR: +26.4%.
• Total Global Matcha Market: $2.9Bn; Gen Z share: $1.1Bn; +12% CAGR.
• Gen Z will be the largest U.S. cohort by 2034.

• Channels:
• DTC (e-commerce): original channel (Chamberlain 1.0, 2020–2022); declining share of total.
• Retail (wholesale to retailers): dominant and growing channel from 2023; retailers include Target, Walmart, Albertsons, Whole Foods, Costco (pipeline).
• Cafés (new): JV model - first café expected to generate $1.8M revenue at 17% EBITDA margin; no CAPEX for Chamberlain Coffee (first 5 fully funded by JV partner).
• Retail unit economics: Costco target ~$75,000 annual sales per store.
• Sales velocity (Target, RTDs, last 12 weeks): Chamberlain Coffee 2.3 units/week/store/item - #2 in category, +53% vs. prior 52-week average.

• Total Gross Revenue (USD thousands):
• 2020: $2,608
• 2021: $8,057
• 2022: $11,846
• 2023: $19,205
• 2024F: $21,930
• 2025F: $33,448
• 2020–2023 CAGR: +95%; 2024F YoY: +14%; 2025F YoY: +53%.
• Retail Gross Revenue (USD thousands, % of total):
• 2020: $0
• 2021: $874 (11%)
• 2022: $1,307 (11%)
• 2023: $6,603 (34%)
• 2024F: $11,688 (53%)
• 2025F: $19,931 (60%)
• 2021–2024F CAGR: +175%; 2025F YoY: +71%.
• Matcha Gross Sales (USD thousands, % of total):
• 2021: $311 (4%)
• 2022: $1,257 (11%)
• 2023: $3,998 (21%)
• Points of Distribution (total, ending door count):
• Q1 2023: 2,128 doors / 544 POD
• Q2 2023: 18,428 doors / 4,744 POD
• Q3 2023: 26,417 doors / 4,944 POD
• Q4 2023: 43,044 doors / 8,049 POD
• Q1 2024: 47,239 doors / 8,100 POD
• Q2 2024: 55,086 doors / 10,566 POD; +199% YoY
• Brand metrics (Gen Z, ages 15–34, UTA IQ survey Feb 2023, n=2,424):
• Brand awareness rate: 49% (vs. competitors 34–41%)
• Brand awareness-to-customer conversion: 43% (tied with La Colombe)
• Social engagement rate: 5.3 (vs. competitors 0.1–1.3)
• Retail performance highlights:
• 75% of CC RTD consumers in Walmart are new to the RTD category
• 70% of CC RTD consumers in Albertsons are new to the beverage category
• 6x velocity growth after Whole Foods cold box placement
• Café: First café projected at $1.8M revenue, 17% EBITDA margin.

• Manufacturing margin described as "improving" through supply chain optimization and formulation improvements; no specific gross margin % disclosed.
• Café EBITDA margin: 17%.
• Path to operational profitability by 2026 stated.

• Direct competitors (RTD, by Target sales velocity): RISE, Black Stag, La Colombe, Pop & Bottle, Slate.
• Brand comparison peers: Intelligentsia, Alfred, Stumptown, Blue Bottle, La Colombe.
• Moat claims:
• Emma Chamberlain's social following → 5.3x social engagement rate vs. next competitor at 1.3.
• Category incrementality (75% of Walmart RTD buyers new to category).
• Early Gen Z brand with 4-year headstart and 49% brand awareness in target cohort.
• Omnichannel expansion (DTC → retail → cafés).
• Exit comps cited: Blue Bottle ($625M, Nestlé, 2017); Costa Coffee ($4.9Bn, Coca-Cola, 2019); La Colombe ($900M, Chobani, 2023); Caribou Coffee (est. +$500M, JDE Peet's, 2024).
• Potential acquirers named: Coca-Cola, General Mills, PepsiCo, Nestlé, KraftHeinz, ABInBev, Keurig DrPepper, JDE Peet's.

• Team:
• Emma Chamberlain - CEO / Founder; content creator and brand representative.
• Gustav Hossy - CEO, Founding Team; Co-Founder Blazar Capital; Founder Christopher Cloos.
• Teri Steinbronn - VP Sales; 12+ yrs food & beverage CPG (Four Sigmatic, Vital Proteins).
• Jeumana Jaber - VP Brand, Founding Team; 15+ yrs brand strategy, talent (UTA, EY).
• Christian Arnstedt - Founder & Board Member.
• Paul Yoo - Board Member.
• Adam Kaller - Board Member.
• Key investors: UTA, Blazar+, Electric Feel, Volition Capital, Agthia, Touchdown Ventures, DG Investment.
• Raise: $5–10M.
• Capital allocation:
• 44% Promotional spend (trade spend + marketing)
• 30% Working capital (inventory ramp)
• 26% OPEX (team)

• Archetype + why: Multi-channel CPG revenue P&L with channel-level gross margin build. The business has three distinct revenue streams (DTC, Retail/wholesale, Cafés/JV) with very different margin structures. Retail is the primary driver (~53–60% of revenue by 2024–2025F) and scales on doors × velocity × net selling price. Matcha is a fast-growing sub-category that warrants its own revenue line. The model should culminate in an EBITDA bridge and path-to-profitability timeline (target: 2026).

• Forecast horizon & granularity:
• Historical: 2020–2023 annual actuals.
• Forecast: 2024F–2027F annual (3-year forward), with 2024–2025 quarterly for retail POD build.

• Key drivers & assumptions:

*Revenue - Retail (primary channel):*

• Retail doors (POD / ending door count): 55,086 as of Q2 2024; growth to reflect Costco onboarding (20–30 stores at launch → potential for 611).
• SKUs per door: derived from POD ÷ doors; currently ~10,566 POD / ~(implied) doors.
• Average weekly velocity (units/week/store/SKU): 2.3 units in Target RTD; blended across all SKUs.
• Net selling price per unit:.
• Trade spend as % of gross retail sales:.

*Revenue - DTC:*

• DTC revenue implied as Total minus Retail: 2024F ~$10.2M (47% of $21.9M).
• DTC growth rate:.

*Revenue - Matcha:*

• Matcha gross sales: $311K (2021) → $1,257K (2022) → $3,998K (2023); share of total: 4%/11%/21%.
• Matcha RTD launch Q1 2025; growth rate.

*Revenue - Cafés:*

• First café: $1.8M revenue, 17% EBITDA margin; no CAPEX for Chamberlain Coffee.
• 5 cafés total in first phase; fully JV-funded.
• Café revenue contribution to consolidated P&L:.

*Gross Margin:*

*OPEX:*

• Promotional trade spend: ~44% of raise ($5–10M) implies $2.2–4.4M incremental; deck says nearly 2x increase.
• G&A / team: 26% of raise = $1.3–2.6M.
• Marketing: bundled in promotional spend.

*Profitability:*

• Operational profitability target: 2026.

-.

• Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
• Base: Retail doors grow per current trajectory; Costco launches in 20–30 stores; matcha RTD contributes modestly in 2025; no margin improvement beyond stated supply chain gains.
• Bull: Costco scales to 200+ warehouses; Whole Foods cold-box rollout nationwide (6x velocity uplift); matcha becomes 30%+ of revenue; café JV generates meaningful equity income; gross margin improves +5pp from formulation savings.
• Bear: Retail POD growth stalls (supply chain relapse like 2024); Costco pilot underperforms; DTC continues declining without replacement; promotional spend fails to lift velocity; profitability pushed to 2027+.
• Flex variables: Retail door count; blended velocity; trade spend %; gross margin %; Costco ramp rate; matcha RTD sell-through.

• Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions - all drivers with / tags.
2. Revenue Build - by channel (DTC, Retail, Matcha sub-line, Cafés) with gross-to-net bridge (trade allowances).
3. Gross Margin Build - COGS by channel, manufacturing cost per unit, gross profit %.
4. P&L - Revenue → Gross Profit → OPEX → EBITDA → Net Income (annual, 2020–2027F).
5. Retail POD Model - quarterly: ending doors × SKUs per door × velocity → gross revenue.
6. Matcha Roadmap - product line revenue by SKU launch stage.
7. Café Model - unit economics per café, JV income/royalty flow.
8. Path to Profitability - EBITDA waterfall showing lever contribution (gross margin improvement, revenue scale, promo efficiency).
9. Scenarios - Base / Bull / Bear toggle on key flex variables.
10. Exit Comp Table - implied valuation at exit using revenue multiples from comp transactions (Blue Bottle, La Colombe, Costa, Caribou).