Birdie Financial Model
Health-tech Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
SaaS platform digitising and coordinating elderly home care delivery for care agencies, carers, families, and clinicians.
professionals from Deloitte
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About this model
Birdie digitises and coordinates elderly home-care delivery for agencies, carers, families, and clinicians. It gives care providers a shared operational view of visits, recipients, and communication across a fragmented service environment.
The UK business is sold to home-care agencies, with recurring software likely priced per agency, care recipient, or carer. Family access can strengthen product adoption without being a separate paid product.
The model should forecast agency customers, care recipients or carers per agency, recurring ARPU, expansion, and churn. Implementation, customer support, and sales costs should be tied to agency cohorts, with pricing sensitivity between agency and per-recipient plans.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Birdie
birdie.care
How to build a detailed financial model for Birdie
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Birdie model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
- Mobile-first care-management app for carers (task lists, medication tracking, observations logging) with a desktop dashboard for agency back-office (scheduling, compliance, clinical charts) and a family portal.
- Replaces paper-based operations (deck states 70% of home care ops still on paper).
- Positions as "person-centred, preventative care platform" - monitors ADL trends to catch deterioration (falls, infection, missed medication) before crises occur.
- Integrates: Local Authority, care agencies, GPs, community nurses, hospitals, pharmacy, families - currently fragmented.
Market
- TAM: Global home care providers market = £100bn.
- SAM: UK addressable market = £1bn. Framing is "home care providers market" - i.e. SaaS wallet of agencies, not total care spend.
- Market growth rate: Not explicitly stated, but slide 2 notes 65+ population will double over next 20 years, reaching 2bn globally, and elderly care already consumes 60% of healthcare costs.
Revenue model
- Revenue model: Not explicitly stated in deck.
- Implied B2B SaaS: sold to home care agencies; per-agency or per-care-recipient subscription is the standard model for this category.
- Distribution channel: Direct sales to UK home care agencies (SME operators).
- Family portal: Likely freemium or bundled into agency license; no separate pricing shown.
Traction & metrics
- 15,000 older adults supported weekly by Birdie-equipped carers
- 300 client home care agencies across the UK
- 3,000 families using Birdie weekly
- Monthly visits completed on Birdie: chart shows ~900,000/month as of Dec '20 (right-hand axis reads ~900,000 at peak)
- Number of active care recipients: ~15,000 as of Dec '20 (left-hand axis)
- Growth rate: x5 growth annotated on the chart (Jan '20 to Dec '20 period)
- NPS / satisfaction: Employer Net Promoter Score of 61+ (team/culture metric, not customer NPS)
Competition / moat
- Moat signals (implied): proprietary care data (ADL observations, medication compliance, fluid intake) creating a longitudinal health record per care recipient; multi-stakeholder network effect (agency + carer + family + clinician all on one platform); 70% of market still on paper = low switching cost from legacy.
Team & funding ask / use of funds
- Named team members on slide 8:
- Malte Gerhold - Chief Integrated Care Officer
- Jo Barlow - Clinical PM
- Kath Middleton - Clinical AI Product Lead
- Gwen le Calvez - CTO
- Awards: Top-10 health-tech, Top-10 UK startups, Top-50 EU startups, Best SME culture 2019
- Press quote: "Birdie may well revolutionise elderly care"
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: B2B SaaS ARR model. Revenue is agency-level recurring subscription; the natural driver tree is: number of agencies × average subscription per agency (which may itself be priced per care recipient or per carer seat). A per-care-recipient pricing layer is also plausible given the product tracks individual recipients. Recommend building dual-driver: agencies × average revenue per agency (ARPA), where ARPA is itself a function of avg recipients per agency × price per recipient.
- Forecast horizon & granularity: 5-year annual (2021–2025) with monthly detail for Year 1–2. Monthly granularity needed because the x5 growth curve (Jan–Dec '20) shows rapid intra-year inflections.
- Key drivers & assumptions:
| Driver | Seed value |
|---|---|
| Active agencies (end of period) | 300 (Dec '20) |
| Active care recipients | 15,000 (Dec '20) |
| Avg recipients per agency | 50 (15,000 ÷ 300) |
| Net new agencies per month | ~25/month implied by growth to 300 |
| Annual agency churn rate | 10% |
| Monthly subscription per agency | £200–£500/month |
| Or: price per care recipient/month | £5–£15/month |
| Monthly visits per recipient | ~60/month (900k visits ÷ 15k recipients) |
| Gross margin | 70–80% |
| S&M % of revenue | 30–40% early, declining |
| R&D % of revenue | 25–35% |
| G&A % of revenue | 10–15% |
| UK TAM penetration (agencies) | ~5,000 agencies assumed in UK (£1bn ÷ avg agency rev) |
| Global expansion start | Year 3 |
| YoY revenue growth | 150% Y1→Y2, stepping down to 60%/40%/30% |
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Bull: Agency net adds accelerate (40/month), ARPA at top of range (£500/agency or £15/recipient), churn 5%.
- Base: Agency net adds ~25/month, ARPA mid-range (£350/agency), churn 10%.
- Bear: Slower agency adoption (10/month), ARPA £200/agency, churn 15%, UK market cap reached early.
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions - all drivers in one place, scenario toggle
- Agency cohort model - monthly new agencies, churn waterfall, cumulative active agencies
- Revenue build - agencies × ARPA (or recipients × price/recipient) → MRR → ARR
- P&L - revenue, gross profit, S&M, R&D, G&A, EBITDA, net income
- Cash / runway - operating cash burn, implied funding needs
- KPI dashboard - agencies, recipients, MRR, ARR, implied ARPA, burn multiple
- Scenario toggle - inputs auto-switch P&L and KPI outputs
Frequently asked
Is the Birdie financial model free?+
Yes. The Birdie model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Birdie's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
Created by ex-finance professionals
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