Hazel Financial Model
Consumer/DTC Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
Premium DTC disposable incontinence underwear brand targeting women 50+ who are underserved by diaper-like legacy products.
professionals from Deloitte
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About this model
Hazel is a premium DTC disposable-incontinence-underwear brand for women over 50. Its High & Dry Brief is designed to offer absorbency and leak protection while looking and feeling more like regular fashion underwear than legacy products.
The company sells directly through its own site and is building a broader platform around menopause and postpartum needs. It conducted extensive consumer research, but the deck does not disclose sales, customer count, or repeat-purchase data.
The model is DTC consumables. Customer acquisition, conversion, units per order, subscription or reorder cadence, average price, COGS, fulfillment, and churn determine revenue. Repeat behavior and product-line expansion drive lifetime value.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Hazel
hazel.com
How to build a detailed financial model for Hazel
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Hazel model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
- Hero product: "High & Dry Brief" - a disposable incontinence underwear for women 50+.
- Three design pillars (slides 7–9):
- Fit: High-waist, control top, ultra-thin, seamless elastics; co-designed with models 50+.
- Function: Leakproof, super-absorbent, moisture-wicking, odor-controlling, disposable.
- Aesthetics: Fashion-forward, seamless, natural fibers + spandex - looks/feels like real underwear.
- Proprietary technology: "No-Leak Chic Technology" - custom hydrophilic dark cover, multi-layer super-flex absorbent core, patented design (not white-labeled) with globally sourced materials (slide 10).
- Manufacturing: Agile manufacturing partner; supply chain controlled by Hazel for flexibility and economies of scale (slide 11).
- Platform vision: "Leakproof economy" - roadmap to expand from incontinence/periods → postpartum → hot flashes → menopause (slide 20).
Market
- TAM - Incontinence category: $13B global market; "fastest growing category in personal care".
- Market growth: $10.5B (2016) → $11.3B (2017) → $12.0B (2018) → $12.9B (2019) → $13.7B (2020); 9% CAGR forecast 2019–2025.
- Benchmark comparison: Incontinence ($13B) vs. Razor ($14B), Hair Loss ($5.3B), Erectile Dysfunction ($4.4B).
- Buying power of menopause-aged women: $15T.
- Penetration opportunity: 50% of women experience weak pelvic floor/bladder leaks; 1 in 2 women 50+ experience urinary leakage.
- Switching intent: 70% of women 50+ willing to try new brands/services; 75% willing to pay more for quality.
- Dissatisfaction with incumbents: 70% of women not satisfied with existing solutions.
- Competitive structure: 82% of market held by legacy (diaper-like) brands; 18% by newer brands; newer brands split between reusable (fashion-forward but serve only 10% of market - light leakage only) and white-labeled (not solving the core problem).
Revenue model
- Channel: DTC via hellohazel.com (slide 1, 21); no retail or wholesale mentioned.
- SKUs: At minimum the "High & Dry Brief"; platform vision suggests future SKUs across menopause/postpartum categories (slide 20).
- Business model type: DTC consumable (repurchase-driven - incontinence is a chronic condition).
Traction & metrics
- No revenue, customer count, orders, or growth rate figures disclosed.
- No AOV, retention, or repeat purchase rate stated.
- Survey/research cited: "Talked to 100s of women" via surveys, 1:1 interviews, and focus groups (slide 15).
Competition / moat
- Legacy incumbents (82% share): Kimberly-Clark (Depend), Procter & Gamble - diaper-like products, no incentive to innovate.
- Reusable upstarts: Fashion-forward but only serve 10% of market (light leakage only); not solving heavy-leakage need.
- White-labeled DTC brands: Copying diaper structure; not solving the 70% dissatisfied cohort.
- Hazel's moat:
- Patented product design (slide 10).
- Co-developed with women 50+ (fit/aesthetic differentiation).
- Controlled, agile supply chain (slide 11).
- Brand identity squarely aimed at an underserved demographic (not marketed as "medical").
- Platform vision across the full "leakproof economy" (slide 20).
Team & funding ask / use of funds
- Steven Cruz, Co-Founder & CEO: Finance/strategy background; led strategy at Plated (part of $300M sale to Albertsons); founding team at Trove Social (50+ concept).
- Aubrey Hubbell, Co-Founder & Chief Design Officer: Brand/product designer; founding team at Rockets of Awesome and Zola.
- Paul Davies, PhD - R&D Consultant: Avon, Nice Pak, Johnson & Johnson.
- Yvonne Mau - VP Supply Chain & Ops: Avon, J.P. Morgan, David Yurman.
- Shawna Strayhorn - VP Growth Marketing: Refinery29, Great Jones, Bank of America.
- Jackie Ordan - Director of CX: Meetup, Apple.
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: DTC consumable P&L with cohort-based repeat-purchase model. Incontinence is a chronic condition - repurchase is structural, not discretionary. The correct model is a cohort waterfall (new customers acquired each period → apply monthly retention/repeat rate → generate revenue from repeat orders) layered on a standard DTC P&L (gross margin after COGS, then contribution margin after variable marketing, then fixed OpEx). This is the same archetype as Dollar Shave Club, Native Deodorant, or Hims - a consumable with strong LTV potential if retention holds.
- Forecast horizon & granularity: 3 years monthly (Year 1–2) collapsing to quarterly (Year 3). Monthly needed to track cohort build-up and runway.
- Key drivers & assumptions:
| Driver | Value |
|---|---|
| US addressable women 50+ with incontinence | ~30M (50% of ~60M women 50+) |
| Average selling price per pack (8-ct brief) | $X |
| Units per pack | 8 |
| Monthly packs consumed per active customer | 2–3 |
| Gross margin % | 45–55% |
| Blended CAC (paid + organic) | $35–60 |
| Month-1 retention rate | 50% |
| Steady-state monthly retention | 70–80% |
| LTV:CAC target | 3:1+ |
| Paid marketing % of revenue | 20–30% |
| SKU expansion year | Year 2+ |
| Global incontinence market CAGR | 9% 2019–2025 |
| Target market penetration by Year 3 | <0.1% |
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Base: CAC $45, retention M1 50% / steady 70%, ASP mid-range, gross margin 50%.
- Bull: Lower CAC via organic/PR flywheel (50+ women highly referral-active per slides 2/13), higher retention (80%+), faster SKU expansion.
- Bear: CAC elevated (50+ audience more expensive to acquire digitally), lower retention if product-market fit incomplete, gross margin pressure from manufacturing ramp.
- Flex variables: CAC, M1 retention, monthly packs/customer, gross margin, paid marketing %.
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions - all drivers in one place.
- Cohort model - monthly customer acquisition × retention waterfall → active customers per period.
- Revenue build - active customers × packs/month × ASP.
- P&L - Revenue → Gross Profit → Contribution Margin (after variable mktg) → EBITDA.
- Unit economics summary - CAC, LTV, LTV:CAC, payback months, contribution margin per customer.
- Cash & runway - OpEx, capex (minimal for DTC), burn, months of runway.
- Scenario toggle - Base / Bull / Bear with single switch.
- Dashboard - KPI cards: active customers, monthly revenue, gross margin %, LTV:CAC, runway.
Frequently asked
Is the Hazel financial model free?+
Yes. The Hazel model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Hazel's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
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