HEHelloBello Financial Model
Consumer/DTC Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
D2C subscription service delivering fresh, individualized cooked dog food to the DACH market (Germany, Austria, Switzerland).
professionals from Deloitte
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About this model
HelloBello delivers fresh, individualized cooked dog food by subscription across the DACH region. Based in Vienna, it addresses pet nutrition with personalised meal plans and recurring delivery rather than conventional packaged-food retail distribution.
The company was targeting a €1.5 million seed raise and operates a direct-to-consumer subscription model. Customer acquisition, monthly growth, and churn are central value drivers, while the operating challenge is matching personalisation with efficient food production and delivery across Germany and Austria.
The model builds subscription revenue from active dogs, meal plans, ARPU, new customers, and churn. Food inputs, production, fulfilment, CAC, and support determine contribution margin, with retention, delivery density, and marketing efficiency testing the capital required to scale.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About HelloBello
How to build a detailed financial model for HelloBello
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable HelloBello model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
Fresh-cooked, individually portioned dog meals configured via an online food configurator and delivered within 24–48h. Three flavors (cow, pork, chicken). Human-grade, regionally sourced ingredients. Subscription model; 1,092 product & price variations enabling personalization. Supplement product line also offered. Sustainability focus: straw-based packaging, CO2-neutral delivery partner, free return of packaging.
Market
- TAM: €2.23bn - total DACH dog food market.
- SAM: €1.32bn - premium dog food segment in DACH (14% of total; 1.8m dogs; €2/day spend).
- SOM: €53m - HelloBello's serviceable obtainable market (online premium subscriptions; 40.5k dogs; €3.5/day spend; 30% target market share in 4 years).
- €1.46bn stationary dog food revenue in Germany; 15% online share of German pet supplies market.
- European pet food industry annual growth: 2.8% (2020).
- German online dog supplies revenue grew 17% in 2020.
- US frozen/refrigerated dog food sales grew 33% in 2020.
- 12.1m dogs in DACH; 21% of European households own a dog.
Revenue model
- Revenue stream: recurring D2C subscription for fresh dog food; €3.5/dog/day spend implied.
- Channel: online only (direct website, food configurator → delivery).
- Delivery: 24–48h; fulfilled via exclusive industrial dog meal kitchen partner.
- Secondary product line: supplements (mentioned as launched, no pricing in deck).
Traction & metrics
- Go-live: January 2021.
- 500k meals cooked.
- 40k individual customer profiles.
- 6-figure MRR achieved within 18 months of launch - exact figure not disclosed.
- "Strong MoM growth" since go-live - no growth rate chart shown.
- Target growth rate post-Seed: 10% MoM.
- 4.8/5 Trustpilot rating, 145 reviews.
- Active in Germany and Austria.
- CAC described as "pushed down, in line with industry peers" - no exact figure.
- Churn described as "stable, comparing well to fresh food peers" - no exact figure.
Unit economics
- CAC: in line with industry peers; pushed down during first 18 months - no number disclosed.
- COGS structure: fresh ingredients (human-grade, regional), production at exclusive kitchen partner, CO2-neutral delivery via Post Next Day Fresh - no cost figures disclosed.
Competition / moat
- Claimed first mover in DACH fresh dog food subscription; no comparable competitor in the German-speaking region at time of deck.
- US analogues: The Farmer's Dog ($103m raised, $1.4bn valuation), NomNomNow ($65m / $165m), Ollie ($51m / $80m).
- Europe: Butternut Box (UK, $125m / $340m valuation), DogChef (Belgium, $16m, French-speaking focus).
- Moat: personalization depth, fresh/regional positioning, proprietary tech stack and data layer, exclusive supply partnership, DACH-first brand.
- Competitive matrix positions HelloBello as highest individualization + highest quality in the DACH market.
Team & funding ask / use of funds
- Team: 11 FTE.
- Marketing & sales: 4
- Tech: 3
- Creative & media: 2
- Finance & admin: 2
- Product & production: 1
- Vet: 1
- Key founders:
- Wolfgang Maurer - Lead Dog; 14 years entrepreneurship & international business development.
- Stephan Freh - Finance & IR; 14 years corporate M&A at UBS & JPMorgan.
- Patrick Etz - Operations & HR; 15+ years international business dev & strategy consulting.
- Emanuele De Patta - CMO; formerly Mammaly, PetPlate performance marketing.
- Funding ask: €1.5m Seed round.
- Use of funds: scale to 10% MoM growth; position as #1 fresh dog food player in German-speaking market.
- Existing investors: mentioned but not named.
- Investor profile sought: D2C and/or PetTech footprint.
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: DTC subscription revenue model (MRR/ARR build). The business is a recurring-revenue subscription with known customer profiles, an explicit MoM growth target, CAC, and churn as key value drivers - classic subscription unit economics model.
- Forecast horizon & granularity: 36 months monthly (to show Seed deployment through Series A milestone); annual summary for years 3–5.
- Key drivers & assumptions:
- Active subscribers (starting base): 40k customer profiles as of deck date; active paying subset unknown - assume ~50–60% active rate at any point → ~20–24k active subscribers at base.
- MRR at model start: 6-figure - model €100k–€150k MRR as base case mid-point pending confirmation.
- MoM subscriber growth rate: 10% MoM post-Seed target; Base case 7% MoM, Bull 10% MoM, Bear 4% MoM.
- Average order value (AOV) / monthly spend per dog: ~€90–€105/month (implied from €3.5/day × 28 days); verify against actual pricing.
- Monthly churn rate: 3–5% (in line with US fresh dog food peers: Farmer's Dog ~3–4%); deck states "stable" with no number.
- CAC: €80–€120 (in line with European DTC pet peers); deck says "in line with peers" with no number.
- LTV = AOV × gross margin % / monthly churn; LTV:CAC ratio target ≥ 3x.
- Gross margin: 40–55% (fresh food logistics-heavy; benchmarked to Butternut Box / US peers who report 45–55% at scale).
- Headcount growth: scale from 11 FTE at Seed to ~20–25 FTE by month 18 in Base case.
- Marketing spend as % of revenue: 25–35% during growth phase (performance marketing intensive).
- Delivery/fulfillment cost per order: ~€8–€12/box based on CO2-neutral courier + cold-chain packaging.
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Base: 7% MoM subscriber growth; 4% monthly churn; 45% gross margin.
- Bull: 10% MoM growth (Seed target); 3% churn; 50% gross margin (scale efficiencies).
- Bear: 4% MoM growth; 6% churn; 38% gross margin (production cost pressure).
- Flex variables: subscriber growth rate, churn, gross margin, CAC, AOV.
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions - all levers centralized.
- Subscriber cohort model - monthly new adds, churn waterfall, active sub count, MRR.
- Income statement - revenue, COGS (production + delivery), gross profit, opex (marketing, tech, G&A), EBITDA.
- Headcount plan - by function, salary + benefits.
- Cash flow & runway - cash burn, Seed capital deployment, months of runway.
- Unit economics summary - CAC, LTV, LTV:CAC, payback period (months).
- Scenario toggle - Base / Bull / Bear switcher.
- Dashboard - MRR, active subs, gross margin %, cash runway, LTV:CAC.
Frequently asked
Is the HelloBello financial model free?+
Yes. The HelloBello model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from HelloBello's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
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