KOKOS Financial Model
Consumer/DTC Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
Plant-based nutrition brand (protein powders, functional blends, supplements) sold primarily DTC via Amazon and KOS.com, expanding into brick-and-mortar retail.
professionals from Deloitte
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About this model
KOS is a plant-based nutrition brand selling protein powders, functional blends, and supplements. It built its consumer business through Amazon and KOS.com before expanding into physical retail, combining wellness positioning with repeat-purchase consumable products.
The company has structurally different channel economics: DTC and Amazon offer direct consumer access and different fees, while retail wholesale adds distribution at a lower margin. Its research also identifies international availability through Amazon and iHerb alongside a US retail focus.
The model builds revenue separately for DTC, marketplace, and retail channels using traffic, conversion, reorders, doors, velocity, and price. COGS, marketplace fees, trade spend, fulfilment, CAC, and inventory needs show how channel mix affects margin and cash.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About KOS
kos.io
How to build a detailed financial model for KOS
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable KOS model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
- Four product lines:
- Plant Protein Powders - flagship; 20g protein, 170 cal, 5 protein sources, USDA Organic, monk fruit/coconut sugar sweetened; 7 flavors, 3 sizes + single-serve; 4th largest Amazon plant protein brand.
- Nutritional Beverage Blends - superfood/adaptogen cold and hot blends; 4 cold + 3 hot; energizing/caffeinated with PureCAF.
- Functional Ingredient Powders - 18 single-ingredient USDA Organic powders (superfoods, adaptogens, mushrooms); used as lead-gen on Amazon.
- Encapsulated Supplements - 12 single-ingredient capsules + 7 specialty complexes (sleep, stress, beauty); recently launched; high margin; in Whole Foods Market from Jan 2021.
- Value prop: premium taste + USDA Organic certifications + competitive price; rated #1 by Healthline, Women's Health, SELF, PopSugar.
- Mission-linked: 1 product = 1 meal donated via Feeding America partnership; 1,886,621 meals donated toward 10M goal at time of deck.
Market
- Amazon Plant Protein category: $194.8M TTM, +32% YoY.
- KOS Amazon plant protein market share: 5%.
- Specific TAM figures for each product line shown on slides 18–21 but fully redacted ("$" placeholder).
- Functional/Specialty Food context: market is growing; deck cites plant-based diet adoption as secular trend.
- No SAM or SOM figures in deck beyond Amazon category data.
Revenue model
- Channels:
- E-commerce: Amazon (primary), KOS.com (D2C), Walmart.com, Vitacost, Thrive Market, Target, iHerb, international Amazon marketplaces.
- Retail / brick-and-mortar: Whole Foods Market, Harris Teeter, H-E-B, Ralphs, King Soopers, Hy-Vee, Fred Meyer, CVS, Vitamin Shoppe, and many natural/gourmet independents.
- Distributors: UNFI, KeHE, DPI Specialty Foods, C&S Wholesale Grocers, Supervalu, Imperial.
- Revenue types: product sales; no subscription model mentioned explicitly (though DTC site and Amazon Subscribe & Save are common in the category - not stated in deck).
- Pricing: flagship protein powder retails ~$40–$50 per bag (standard market price for USDA Organic plant protein; based on category norms - specific MSRPs not in deck).
- Gross margin structure: retail channel at lower net margin due to distributor/retailer margin stack; DTC/Amazon at higher net. Supplements described as "high margin".
- Per-unit economics: AOV, ASP not disclosed in deck.
Traction & metrics
- Revenue: all dollar figures redacted. Chart (slide 11) shows continuous growth from Q1 2018 launch through Q4 2021E - steep inflection in 2021; qualitative shape only visible.
- Annualized Run Rate Q4, Trailing 12 Months, 2020 Revenue, 2019 Revenue, 2018 Revenue (Launch): all listed but redacted.
- Households (digital): Total and New Households YTD redacted; Blended CAC redacted; MER (Media Efficiency Ratio) redacted; 2022 projected household count redacted.
- Amazon plant protein: 5% category share ($194.8M category = ~$9.7M implied KOS Amazon plant protein TTM at 5%); 4th largest brand; 4.3/5 stars, 8,448 global ratings.
- Brick & mortar: >34,000 Total Distribution Points (TDPs) through 10/31/21; TDP growth +446% YoY; retail doors +327% YoY; fastest growing TDP in Plant Protein Natural Channel per SPINS. Started B&M expansion Dec 2019; ~15,000 retail doors by Oct 2021 (read from slide 25 chart).
- Impact: 1,886,621 meals donated.
- Launched Jan 2021: Nighty Nite, At Ease Soldier, Lookin' Good at Whole Foods Market nationally.
- Deck dated June 2021 (cover); slides 23 and 25 reference data through Sep–Oct 2021, suggesting updated appendix.
Unit economics
- All redacted: Blended CAC, MER, household LTV not disclosed.
- Supplement line described as "high margin" - no figure given.
- Co-manufacturer is equity partner; in-house formulation/flavors lab; in-house 15,000 sq ft fulfillment - vertical integration suggests above-category gross margins.
- No explicit gross margin, contribution margin, CAC, LTV, or payback period figures in deck.
Competition / moat
- Amazon plant protein competitive set (by share): Orgain 29%, Vega 24%, Garden of Life 10%, NAKED 3%, Sunwarrior 3%, Truvani 2%, PlantFusion 2%, Nutiva 2%, KOS 5%.
- Moat claims:
- Taste differentiation: award-winning, rated #1 by multiple major publications.
- Vertical integration: co-manufacturer equity partner, in-house lab, in-house fulfillment.
- Brand equity / mission: Feeding America partnership, #naturePOWERED identity.
- Digital-first expertise: founders' decade-long background in digital marketing, SEO, e-commerce.
- Amazon algorithm position: "fastest growing" + high review velocity builds organic rank defensibility.
- Exit comps shown: Beyond Meat 19x EV/Rev, Laird Superfood 15x, Orgain 29% market share; M&A comps at 4–7x EV/Rev.
Team & funding ask / use of funds
- Co-CEOs: Allan Stevens and Tony Stahl; 10+ year business partners; background in digital marketing, SEO, software development, e-commerce; based Santa Barbara, CA.
- Leadership / Advisory Board: fully redacted.
- Round type/stage: implied growth equity or strategic raise (deck emphasizes exit environment and M&A comps on slide 27, suggesting dual-track or strategic process).
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: DTC Consumer Brand (omnichannel CPG) P&L model with channel-level revenue build. KOS has two distinct channel economics - high-margin DTC/Amazon vs. lower-margin retail wholesale - that must be modeled separately to correctly capture gross margin mix shift as B&M scales. A 3-statement model sits underneath, but the revenue and gross profit build is the core.
- Forecast horizon & granularity: Quarterly actuals 2018–2021, quarterly forecast 2022–2024; annual summary view. Monthly optionally for near-term cash burn if raise is imminent.
- Key drivers & assumptions:
| Driver | Value |
|---|---|
| Amazon plant protein category size TTM | $194.8M |
| Amazon category growth rate | +32% YoY |
| KOS Amazon plant protein share | 5% |
| Total retail doors (Oct 2021) | ~15,000 |
| Total TDPs (Oct 2021) | >34,000 |
| TDP YoY growth rate | +446% |
| Retail door YoY growth | +327% |
| Revenue by year (2018–2021E) | Redacted |
| Blended CAC | Redacted |
| Media Efficiency Ratio | Redacted |
| Total digital households | Redacted |
| Gross margin - DTC/Amazon | ~45–55% |
| Gross margin - retail/wholesale | ~30–40% |
| Amazon channel mix (% of revenue) | ~70–75% (2021) |
| B&M channel mix (% of revenue) | ~20–25% (2021) |
| Revenue/door/month (retail) | ~$150–250 |
| SKU count | ~40+ (proteins + blends + powders + supplements) |
| Flagship protein ASP | ~$42 (1 lb bag) |
| Amazon advertising % of revenue | ~15–25% |
| D2C marketing spend (MER target) | Redacted |
| COGS structure | Vertical integration with equity co-mfr partner; in-house fulfillment |
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Base: Amazon share holds at 5%, retail doors grow at 40% YoY, gross margin mix stable, CAC stable.
- Bull: Amazon share gains to 7–8% on review velocity; retail door velocity accelerates; supplement line drives margin expansion; national WFM rollout scales.
- Bear: Amazon competition intensifies, CPC inflation raises CAC, retail velocity disappoints, gross margin contracts on channel mix shift toward wholesale.
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Revenue Build - by channel (Amazon, KOS.com, retail, international, other e-com), by product line (protein, blends, powders, supplements).
- COGS & Gross Profit - channel-level gross margin; blended gross margin.
- Marketing & CAC - digital ad spend, new household additions, blended CAC, MER, LTV by cohort (populate when numbers provided).
- Operating Expenses - fulfillment (in-house), G&A, headcount.
- P&L Summary (IS).
- Cash Flow (simplified operating CF; capex light given in-house warehouse).
- Balance Sheet (light - primarily for working capital: inventory, AR from retail).
- Retail Distribution Tracker - door count, TDPs, velocity/door.
- Valuation / Exit - EV/Revenue multiple sensitized against comparable exits on slide 27 (4–7x M&A, 10–19x public comp range).
Frequently asked
Is the KOS financial model free?+
Yes. The KOS model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from KOS's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
Created by ex-finance professionals
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