Numan Financial Model

• App-based digital clinic: consultations, health tracking (sleep, blood, sexual health), medication reminders, and clinician video chat - all in one platform.
• Initial conditions: erectile dysfunction (ED/Tadalafil), hair loss, premature ejaculation (delay spray/wipes).
• Regulated by the Care Quality Commission (CQC) - claimed as the only CQC-registered player in this UK men's digital health vertical.
• Blood-test kit + supplement fulfilment (branded packaging visible).
• Platform ambition: connect patients with stakeholders for development and distribution of new products (slide 09 - expansion beyond initial three conditions).

• Membership/subscription model: customers described as "paying members."
• Revenue generated from ongoing prescription medication fulfilment (recurring), supplemented by OTC products (delay spray, supplements) and potentially consultation fees.
• Channel: 100% direct online (D2C); no offline retail presence mentioned.
• Gross margin metric referenced as "GMII" (likely Gross Margin II, net of fulfilment/COGS), described as "stable" alongside revenue growth.

All specific numbers are redacted in the shared deck version. The following metrics are confirmed to exist but values are blurred:

• Revenue: grew materially over the 6 months Feb–Nov 2019; monthly revenue shown Aug 2019–Jul 2020 in slide 05 alongside EBITDA - trajectory upward, exact figures redacted.
• CAC: shown declining from a peak in March 2019 through November 2019; reduction in CAC stated as a headline but magnitude redacted.
• CPA (cost per acquisition): tracked alongside CAC, converging downward by Nov 2019.
• Conversion rate: increased from launch (March) through October; upward S-curve trajectory visible, exact % redacted.
• At 18 months post-launch (i.e. ~Aug 2020):
• 12-month LTV/CAC ratio: redacted
• Payback period (months): redacted
• ARR: £[X]M - exact figure redacted
• Paying members: redacted
• EBITDA: negative (implied by "capital-efficient" framing and early stage), shown as separate series on revenue chart - magnitude redacted.

• LTV/CAC (12-month basis): exists and is highlighted as a KPI; value redacted.
• CAC: declining trend Feb–Nov 2019; absolute level redacted.
• CPA: tracked alongside CAC; converging to similar level by Nov 2019.
• Payback period: stated in months; value redacted.
• Gross margin: "stable GMII" referenced alongside revenue growth - implies relatively fixed fulfilment cost structure.
• No explicit LTV build (ARPU × churn × margin) shown in deck.

Five competitor buckets identified:

1. Public health (NHS) - free but long wait times, repeat visits required, limited prescribing.
2. Private clinics - high quality but high friction and cost; not accessible.
3. Online pharmacy incumbents - large but bloated, rely on offline presence, cannot innovate efficiently.
4. Telemedicine 1.0 - focused on acute care, limited breadth.
5. Horizontal funded startups - focus on generic distribution and lifestyle branding; lack depth of proposition.
6. Funded vertical startups - hard to scale multiple brands; difficulty extending patient relationship.

Moat claims: CQC registration (only player), breadth of proposition (conditions + app + lab + consultations), patient data flywheel implied by platform slide.

• Funding ask: Not quantified in deck. Implied by pitch context.

• Archetype + why: DTC subscription / recurring revenue P&L model with cohort-level unit economics. Numan is a medication subscription business: customers pay monthly for ongoing prescriptions. The right model is a cohort-based MRR/ARR build - new member adds by cohort, churn, ARPU, gross margin, then CAC/marketing spend layered in to show payback and LTV. Secondary revenue stream (OTC products, one-time purchases) can be a separate line. Not a pure SaaS ARR model (physical fulfilment and COGS matter heavily), not a marketplace. Closest archetype: DTC health subscription with gross margin bridge.

• Forecast horizon & granularity: Monthly actuals (Aug 2019–Jul 2020 implied by deck), then monthly forecast 24 months forward, rolling to annual summary. Monthly granularity required to model cohort retention curves and CAC trends.

• Key drivers & assumptions:
• New paying members added per month
• Monthly churn rate
• ARPU per month (blended across conditions/SKUs)
• Gross margin % (GMII - medication + fulfilment net of COGS)
• CAC - blended, declining trend visible; absolute level redacted
• CPA vs CAC split (paid media efficiency)
• Conversion rate (visitor/lead → paying member)
• Marketing spend (primary CAC lever)
• Headcount / opex ramp
• EBITDA margin path
• Expansion conditions revenue (post slide-08 phase)

• Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear):
• Flex variables: monthly churn, new member growth rate, CAC trajectory, ARPU.
• Bear: churn elevated (10%+), CAC stays flat, ARPU pressured by competitor pricing.
• Base: churn moderate (6%), CAC continues declining per deck trend, ARPU stable.
• Bull: churn low (3–4%), CAC continues falling, condition expansion drives ARPU uplift and cross-sell.

• Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions dashboard (all input levers, toggle for scenario)
2. Cohort model - monthly new member cohorts × retention curve → active members over time
3. Revenue build - active members × ARPU (subscription) + OTC/one-time revenue
4. Gross margin bridge - revenue → GMII (net of COGS/fulfilment)
5. CAC & marketing spend - new members × CAC, plus organic/paid split if data available
6. P&L - gross profit less S&M, R&D, G&A → EBITDA
7. Unit economics summary - LTV (12M and lifetime), CAC, payback period, LTV/CAC ratio by cohort vintage
8. Cash & runway - cumulative cash burn, months of runway given raise
9. KPI dashboard - MRR, ARR, active members, churn, CAC, LTV/CAC (monthly)