TSThree Ships Financial Model
Consumer/DTC Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
Transparent, affordable natural skincare brand selling direct-to-consumer and via wholesale retail
professionals from Deloitte
Used by professionals from
About this model
Three Ships is a transparent, affordable natural-skincare brand selling through DTC e-commerce and wholesale retail. It positions around simple ingredients and accessible clean beauty, with product efficacy and customer trust central to repeat-purchase behaviour.
The Canadian company was raising a C$550,000 seed round and also serves US customers. Retail partners cited in its deck include Target and Whole Foods, so the plan must distinguish higher-margin owned e-commerce revenue from wholesale revenue shaped by trade margins and sell-through.
The model builds beauty revenue by customers, repeat rate, AOV, retail doors, velocity, and SKU mix. COGS, fulfilment, retail margin, inventory, CAC, marketing, and new-product launches determine contribution margin, profitability, and the cash required for omnichannel growth.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Three Ships
How to build a detailed financial model for Three Ships
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Three Ships model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
- Natural skincare product line including: Radiance, Calm, Nourish (Lavender + MCT Cleansing Oil), Glow, Purify (Aloe + Amino Acid Cleanser), Detox (Green Tea Antioxidant Clay Mask)
- Differentiation on three pillars:
- Formulation Transparency - full ingredient glossary online (source, scientific benefit, product listing); exceeds EU standards
- Forever Affordable - no filler ingredients; every cent to formulation
- Efficacy - "most transparent natural skincare brand on the market that works"
- Target customer: ingredient-conscious women; 59% scan cosmetics for harmful ingredients before purchase
Market
- No explicit TAM/SAM/SOM figures in deck
- Proxy market context: Median serum price at Sephora = $74 CAD; 33% of women won't buy without understanding ingredients - implies large addressable base for transparent alternatives
Revenue model
- Channels:
- DTC e-commerce (implied primary - customer reviews reference direct purchases)
- Wholesale / retail - physical and digital wholesalers: Hudson's Bay, Indigo, Whole Foods Market, Target, CAUSEBOX, IPSY
- Pricing: Products positioned below Sephora median ($74 CAD for serums) as "forever affordable"; exact SKU pricing not in deck
- Unit/volume: Launching into 600 new wholesale doors
Traction & metrics
- Wholesale pipeline: 600 new doors secured in last quarter; projected revenue >$1M CAD from wholesale deals - note this is projected, not historical
- Customer reviews: US and Canadian customers cited (September–October 2020)
- Historical revenue, order volumes, website traffic, DTC customer count, repeat purchase rate: Not in deck
Unit economics
- Use of funds allocation implies customer acquisition is the largest cost bucket at 43% of raise, suggesting CAC is a known lever - but no explicit CAC or LTV figures given
Competition / moat
- Competitive positioning: explicitly vs. "overpriced, greenwashed brands"
- Moat claims: ingredient transparency (full online glossary exceeding EU standards), fair pricing, functional formulas
Team & funding ask / use of funds
- Founders:
- Laura Burget - Co-Founder, Product Development & Operations; University of Toronto, Bachelor of Chemical Engineering, 2016
- Connie Lo - Co-Founder, Sales & Marketing; Queen's University, Bachelor of Commerce, 2015
- Funding ask: $550,000 CAD seed round
- Use of funds:
- Customer Acquisition: 43% (~$236,500 CAD)
- Retail Marketing: 15% (~$82,500 CAD)
- Staffing: 29% (~$159,500 CAD)
- Working Capital: 12% (~$66,000 CAD)
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: DTC + Wholesale omnichannel CPG P&L. Revenue splits across two channels with different economics - DTC has higher gross margin but requires paid CAC; wholesale runs on trade margin/sellthrough. A combined channel P&L with inventory/COGS is the right structure for a physical product brand at this stage.
- Forecast horizon & granularity: 3 years monthly (Year 1 monthly for cash management; Years 2–3 quarterly roll-up acceptable). Seed raise implies 18–24 months runway focus.
- Key drivers & assumptions:
- DTC revenue: SKU count × average order value (AOV) × monthly orders
- Wholesale revenue: Doors × sell-in volume per door × average unit selling price
- DTC gross margin
- Wholesale gross margin
- CAC (DTC)
- Staffing cost: $159,500 CAD from raise; incremental hires beyond raise
- Working capital / inventory build: $66,000 CAD from raise; inventory turns
- Retail marketing spend: $82,500 CAD
- Reorder/repeat rate
- Revenue growth post-seed
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Bear: Wholesale sellthrough underperforms (doors don't reorder), DTC CAC elevated, gross margin compressed by COGS inflation
- Base: 600 doors ramp over 6 months, DTC grows proportionally with CAC budget, margins hold
- Bull: Wholesale retailers expand door count / reorder velocity, DTC organic/word-of-mouth reduces blended CAC, additional SKU launches
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions - all drivers, CAD currency, toggle scenarios
- Revenue - DTC channel and Wholesale channel split
- P&L (Income Statement) - Revenue, COGS, Gross Profit, Operating Expenses (CAC, Retail Marketing, Staffing, G&A)
- Cash Flow - operating cash burn vs. raise proceeds; runway
- Use of Funds - allocation waterfall matching deck (43/15/29/12 split)
- Dashboard - monthly burn, channel revenue mix, gross margin %, door count ramp
Frequently asked
Is the Three Ships financial model free?+
Yes. The Three Ships model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Three Ships's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
Created by ex-finance professionals
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