Cloudsmith Financial Model

• Managed Package Distribution Network (PDN): a "smart CDN" for software artifacts - ingests packages from developers and upstream sources, enforces controls and security scanning, distributes to internal teams and external consumers.
• Supports 23+ package formats (Docker, Maven, Ruby Gems, npm, Python, etc.).
• Three core pillars: Observability, Control, Performance.
• Ecosystem integrations: CI/CD (CircleCI, Buildkite, GitHub), security scanning (Clair, Trivy, Snyk, Anchore), observability (Datadog, SumoLogic, New Relic), deployment (Terraform, Harness, Puppet).
• Future vision ("The Mesh"): deep learning layer mapping the global software bill of materials - software intelligence across all interconnected supply chains.
• 99.99%+ uptime SLA (past 3 months at time of deck).

• TAM: $500 billion - "All Software Companies". Note: this appears to be a broad total software market figure; treat as aspirational context, not serviceable market.
• SOM (labelled as "Service Obtainable Market"): $100 billion - companies with R&D >50 devs, portfolio of products, distributing at scale.
• ICP (labelled as "Ideal Customer Profile" market): $50 billion. Footnote references JFrog with 1% capture of a (partially overlapping) $22bn addressable market, of which only 23% is cloud-based.
• Growth context: "By 2023, 40% of orgs will ship code daily vs. 3% in 2019". Market is shifting to Cloud-Native / DevOps - structural tailwind for cloud-based package management.
• Competitive reference: JFrog cited as having 0.5% capture of $50bn addressable market, with only 23% cloud-based - implies huge whitespace in cloud-native segment.

Three-tier subscription model with usage-based overlay:

• Usage component (storage + bandwidth) sits on top of every tier; capped at Team and Velocity tiers to drive upgrade pressure.
• Usage can be pre-purchased at a discount (pre-purchased usage) or consumed on-demand.
• Revenue streams: Subscription ARR + On-Demand Usage ARR + Pre-Purchased Usage.
• Target mid-market ACV sweet spot: $100–150k.
• GTM: Self-serve (content/inbound) for Team/Velocity; high-touch ABM + pre-sales/CS for Ultra/Enterprise.
• Distribution costs scale at 5–10x revenue margin (i.e., COGS are a fraction of revenue at scale).

• ARR: $REDACTED (end of May 2021); footnote mentions "$REDACTED ARR in April, and ~$REDACTED+ in June". All dollar figures redacted in deck.
• ARR growth: 3x YoY in 2020; 10% MoM (at time of deck, mid-2021).
• Customers: REDACTED (number redacted across all slides).
• NPS: REDACTED.
• Average rating: REDACTED.
• Net Revenue Retention (NRR): REDACTED%. Cohort table (slide 35) shows all NRR values as "XXX%" but the scatter plot shows NRR at 12 months rising to ~165–170% for early cohorts - strong net expansion trajectory visible in chart shape.
• Service requests: 0.5 billion in past 3 months.
• Uptime: 99.99%+ (past 3 months).
• Total sessions: REDACTED (past 1 month).
• ARR mix by tier (end Apr 2021): Ultra = 59% of ARR, Velocity self-serve = 23%, Team self-serve = 18%.
• Shopify case study: initial deal size and expected Y1 growth both redacted.
• CAC (Ultra net new): $REDACTED.
• LTV: $REDACTED.
• Payback period: "X months" (redacted).
• Ultra ACV: $REDACTED.

• CAC (Ultra net new customers): REDACTED.
• LTV: REDACTED.
• Payback period: REDACTED.
• Gross margin (current): ~XX% (redacted in slide 36 image). Deck states target of 80%+ gross margin achievable short-term with ARR scale; long-term target 85%+.
• COGS structure: Payroll COGS + Non-Payroll COGS (infrastructure). Infrastructure costs described as "relatively flat - doesn't need to scale with customers." Distribution costs scale at 5–10x revenue margin.
• Ongoing AWS discounts and infrastructure optimisation (spot instances, reserved capacity, serverless migration) expected to compress non-payroll COGS over time.

Competitors:

• On-premises / traditional: JFrog Artifactory, Sonatype Nexus, Inedo ProGet
• Cloud commodity storage: GitHub, GitLab, DockerHub
• Cloud platform providers: AWS CodeArtifact, Azure DevOps, Google Cloud Platform
• Specialist cloud: PackageCloud, MyGet, GemFury

Cloudsmith positioning: Best-in-breed + Cloud-Native (upper-right quadrant - only occupant) vs. all competitors who are either on-premises or platform/generalist.

Moat claims:

• Fully managed global infrastructure (competitors require self-hosted/self-managed)
• 23+ format support vs. single-format or limited tools
• Deep security and compliance stack (license compliance, scanning)
• Upstream caching and isolation
• First-mover in Cloud-Native SSC - "The Mesh" as durable future differentiator
• NPS / customer love cited as differentiated vs. JFrog

Co-founders:

• Alan Carson, CEO - 20+ years enterprise software; led NYSE international team deploying 100+ products.
• Lee Skillen, CTO - 20 years high-performance computing and security; built Newzbin (120k subscribers, 200M hits/month, £1.2M ARR).

Core team (~12 people at time of deck): Engineering (3), Developer Relations (2), Marketing (4 inc. Director), Chief of Staff.

Board: Steve Collins (ex-CTO King, Swrve, Havok). Advisors: Sarah Friar (CEO Nextdoor, ex-Square), Michael Black (CFO Clavis, Ammeon).

Existing investors: Frontline, MMC, Techstart.

Raising: Series A (amount not disclosed in deck).

Use of funds - proportional spend:

• Sales & Marketing: 54%
• R&D: 32%
• Customer Success: 9%
• Admin: remainder

Key senior hires planned: CRO/VP Growth, VP Engineering, VP Product, VP Security, Head of Customer Success, Head of Talent.

• Archetype + why: SaaS ARR model with usage-based overlay ("SaaS + consumption" hybrid). Revenue has two distinct components - recurring subscription by tier and variable usage (storage + bandwidth). The tier structure (Team/Velocity/Ultra/Enterprise) with explicit ASP multipliers maps cleanly to a cohort-based ARR build. NRR well above 100% (cohort chart implies ~130–170% at 12 months for mature cohorts) means net expansion is the primary growth lever alongside new logo adds. This is a classic product-led + sales-assisted SaaS motion with a usage flywheel.

• Forecast horizon & granularity: Monthly for Years 1–2 (2021–2022), quarterly for Years 3–4 (2023–2024). Four-year horizon aligns with deck's own forecast slide. Monthly granularity needed to model 10% MoM growth trajectory and usage seasonality.

• Key drivers & assumptions:

*New logo acquisition*

• Starting customer count: REDACTED
• New logos per month by tier:
• PLG conversion rate (free/trial → paid Team):
• Sales cycle length:

*ACV by tier*

• Team ACV:
• Velocity ACV:
• Ultra ACV:]
• Enterprise ACV:

*Usage revenue*

• Usage as % of subscription ARR by tier:
• Usage growth per cohort:

*Net Revenue Retention*

• NRR: REDACTED. Cohort chart implies >130% at 12 months for mature cohorts -
• Gross churn:; model at 3–5%]

*Gross margin*

• Current gross margin: ~XX% (redacted). Deck states short-term target 80%+, long-term 85%+

-

• Non-payroll COGS:
• Payroll COGS:

*Headcount & Opex*

• Use of funds split: 54% S&M, 32% R&D, 9% CS, ~5% Admin

-

• Sales rep productivity:

*ARR growth rate*

• Base case: 3x YoY 2021→2022 (consistent with 2020 performance) then decelerating: ~2.5x 2022→2023, ~2x 2023→2024
• 10% MoM in 2021 = ~214% annual growth - use as anchor for near-term

• Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
• Bear: NRR drops to 105–110% (usage expansion stalls), new logo adds 30% below plan, GM stays at ~65% (infrastructure not optimised). Implies ~2x YoY.
• Base: NRR 120–130%, new logos per plan, GM expansion to 80% by 2022. Implies 2.5–3x YoY for 2021–2022.
• Bull: NRR 140%+ (Mesh/intelligence upsell kicks in), enterprise logo wins accelerate (ACV >$150k), GM hits 85% by 2023. Implies 3x+ sustained into 2023.

• Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions - all drivers, toggle for Base/Bull/Bear
2. ARR Build - new ARR, expansion ARR, churned ARR by tier and month; opening/closing ARR waterfall
3. Usage Revenue - on-demand usage and pre-purchased usage layers by tier
4. Cohort Model - customer cohorts by quarter, track NRR expansion over 12 months (mirrors slide 35 structure)
5. Headcount Plan - by department, with hire dates and fully-loaded cost
6. P&L - monthly IS: Revenue (subscription + usage), COGS (payroll + infra), Gross Profit, S&M, R&D, G&A, EBITDA
7. Gross Margin Bridge - current state → short-term target → long-term (infra optimisation waterfall)
8. Unit Economics - CAC by tier, LTV, payback period; LTV/CAC ratio
9. Summary Dashboard - ARR, Customers, NRR, GM%, Burn, Runway KPIs