LL

Little Lunch Financial Model

• Core product: shelf-stable organic soups & stews in glass jars - "pure organic, great taste, for you".
• Expanding into pasta sauces & meal makers, stocks & broths (described as "new" categories at time of deck).
• Value prop: organic + convenience + no preservatives + sustainable packaging; affordable relative to premium organic niche.
• Feedback-driven product development via DTC customer data, enabling fast iteration.

• Organic soups & stews (DACH retail + drugstore, excl. discount/food service/online): €24M market size.
• Fresh Ready Meals: €145M.
• Pasta Sauce & Meal Makers: €148M.
• Combined addressable market across the three segments: ~€317M.
• Market described as "fast growing $bn" convenience food market at macro level - no specific growth rate cited for these segments.
• Little Lunch market share in organic soups & stews (DACH): 56%.
• Market leader position achieved "in only three years" (i.e., from ~2017 to 2020).
• No SAM/SOM breakdown or category growth CAGR given beyond Little Lunch's own revenue CAGR.

Channels:

1. Retail - supermarkets, drugstores; listed in 74% of all German supermarkets, drugstores, and cash & carry markets.
2. Online - own online shop + Amazon.
3. Teleshopping - HSE24 (TV home shopping).

Units / SKU count: Multiple SKUs across soups, sauces, stocks (exact count not disclosed). Manufacturing: Outsourced externally. Distribution/logistics: Outsourced externally.

• Revenue CAGR: 42% from 2015 to 2020.
• Market share (organic soups & stews, DACH): 56% in 2020.
• Retail distribution: 74% of German supermarkets, drugstores, and cash & carry.
• Employees: 28.
• Founded: 2014.
• Social media (at time of deck):
• Facebook: 71k fans, YoY +34%
• Pinterest: 60k monthly users, YoY +1,400%
• Instagram: 49k followers, YoY +43%
• Awards: Top Brand 2018 (shelf-stable soups & stews), Product of the Year 2017, Fastest Growing eCommerce Company 2017, Tasty Award 2019, German Brand Award 2020.
• Brand image: ranked higher than Competitor 1 and Competitor 2 on Sympathy, Quality, Trendsetting, Premium Recipe, Relevance (Innofact AG Brand Awareness Study, Dec 2018).

• Moat: First-mover / category definer for shelf-stable organic soups in DACH; 56% market share by 2020.
• Competitors referenced but unnamed (Competitor 1, Competitor 2 in brand study).
• Competitive advantages cited: brand love/NPS, inhouse e-commerce capability (developers, UX, performance marketing), proprietary customer data independent of Nielsen.
• Sustainability positioning (zero carbon by 2021, >95% recyclable packaging, no plastic policy) as differentiation.

• Co-founders / Co-CEOs: Denis Gibisch and Daniel Gibisch.
• Leadership team: Head of Brand & Marketing, Head of Sales, Head of Operations, Head of Product, Head of Finance.
• Team tenure: working together 4+ years.
• HQ: Augsburg, Germany; 600 sq m office.
• Shareholders: 6.
• Funding ask: Amount and round type not disclosed in deck.
• Use of funds: Not explicitly stated; implied uses are European expansion, new product categories (pasta sauce, fresh ready meals), and continued e-commerce investment.

• Archetype + why: DTC + Retail CPG revenue model (multichannel P&L). Little Lunch has two structurally different revenue streams - (A) retail/wholesale (sold into trade at a trade price, no direct consumer relationship) and (B) DTC online (own shop + Amazon, higher margin, full consumer data). These must be modelled separately to capture the channel mix shift and gross margin differences. A 3-statement model is warranted given the manufacturing outsourcing (COGS driven by volume + input costs) and the investor audience.

• Forecast horizon & granularity: 5 years (2021–2025), annual, with a monthly Year 1 tab for cash flow visibility.

• Key drivers & assumptions:

*Revenue drivers:*

• Retail revenue: organic soup market size €24M × market share % (base: hold 56%; bull: expand to 65% - market leader with strong distribution; bear: erosion to 48% - new entrants)
• Retail channel mix expansion: pasta sauce/meal makers category ramp (market €148M) - Year 1 penetration 3–5% of that market
• DTC revenue: grow as % of total revenue - currently not disclosed; assume DTC is 15–25% of total given "growing part of revenue" language; 42% CAGR applied blended but may decelerate as retail matures
• European expansion revenue: from Year 2 or 3 - greenfield, minimal contribution early

*Margin drivers:*

• Gross margin: ~45–55% for DTC (branded organic food with outsourced manufacturing); ~25–35% for retail (trade pricing). Exact figures not in deck - must be confirmed with company.
• COGS structure: raw materials + outsourced manufacturing + packaging
• Blended gross margin will shift with channel mix

*Cost drivers:*

• Marketing/performance marketing: 15–25% of DTC revenue (inhouse capability cited)
• Headcount: 28 currently; grow to 40–50 by Year 3 as European expansion starts
• Logistics/fulfilment: outsourced; proportional to volume

*Working capital:*

• Inventory: shelf-stable product; 60–90 day stock cover
• Retail receivables: 45–60 day debtor days (standard DACH retail trade terms)
• DTC: near-zero receivables

• Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
• Base: 42% revenue CAGR continues 2021–2022, then decelerates to 20–25% as market matures; channel mix stable; European expansion from Year 3.
• Bull: Pasta sauce/ready meal categories accelerate (combined market €293M); DTC grows faster; European expansion Year 2.
• Bear: Retail market share erosion from competition; DTC growth slows; input cost inflation compresses margins.

• Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions dashboard (all drivers centralized)
2. Revenue build (by channel: retail by category, DTC, teleshopping)
3. P&L / Income Statement (Revenue → Gross Profit → EBITDA → EBIT → Net Income)
4. Working capital & cash flow
5. Balance sheet (optional for investor-ready version)
6. Scenario toggle (Base / Bull / Bear)
7. Summary KPI dashboard (Revenue, GM%, EBITDA%, market share by category)